Monday, August 05, 2013 9:59:08 AM
I'm in.
New stock and new President.
Next gen flu antiviral (Laninamivir) Phase 2 results due around this time next year. Drug is now selling in Japan (known as Inavir) and has already overtaken Tamiflu as the no.1 flu drug over there. LANI is a single inhalation treatment versus Tamiflu being a 5 day course of tablets - the difference is a no-brainer.
Importantly, the cost to take LANI to market - through Phase 2 & 3 has been covered by the HHS/BARDA, who have put up $231m to get this drug through to commercialization.
Antivirals market in the US is split 50:50 approx between stockpile and Seasonal retail market, each averaging $1bn+ revenue per year. Tamiflu has traditionally dominated this market.
Expect a strong $BOTA rerate second half of next year to coincide with Phase 2 results, but a steady rise between now and then is likely as brokers come on board. The volume will tell the story.
At $4 and a market cap of $115m, I'm excited!
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