LC,
Sorry to keep pestering you (you don't seem really interested in my project), but you know more about Synchrovest than anyone else I'm aware of, so I'm going at it again.
I've already told you that in my IRA Account, I try to TIME the market moves and enter ALL-IN and ALL-OUT, but that I'm looking for something a little more long-term for my taxable account. This is why I was (and am) interested in Ocroft's Modification of AIM, but I actually prefer SynchroVest (from what I know of it), because it allows for regular contributions (which AIM doesn't like).
My primary gripe about SynchroVest, has been that it puts the largest amounts of money in too soon after a sale. A few years ago, I set up a SynchroVest SS for the ETF "SPY" (S&P 500 ETF), with prices going back to June 1995. SynchroVest did pretty well on that rising market into the high in Sept/Oct of 2000, and then the downturn hit, and hit hard. The Investment Multiplier went over 1.00 early in 2001, and, because there was a large pot of money available from the prior sale in 1999, the multiplier was using copious amounts of cash. Even though the Multiplier continued to get bigger as the market went down, there was a smaller amount of cash for it to use, and by the time the market hit its Lows in Oct '02 and Mar '03, there wasn't much more cash than the monthly contribution. (A Multiplier of 1.095 X $50,000 Cash, uses much more cash than a Multiplier of 1.350 X $2,500). So, the Multiplier grew larger, but the actual dollars, spent on SPY, diminished.
My thinking at the time, was that this would be a "disaster" for anyone who had tried to SynchroVest the ETF "QQQ" (NASDAQ 100 ETF), because it has never come close (and probably never will) to its 2000 peak, so the average cost of any shares purchased, likely wouldn't come down enough to see a profit. So, I gave up on it. Then, Ocroft posted on the AIM Board.
Bob
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