Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Rawnoc]

adamfeuerstein Comments (144)

Well written, Bond. I enjoyed reading your take on AMRN. I believe almost all of your premise and conclusions are wrong, but hey, that's not a surprise to you or any of your fellow AMRN believers. A few points:

FDA could have granted Vascepa NME already. It hasn't. I do agree with you that Anchor, if approved, is likely to get NME, but that doesn't prevent a generic carve out for the Marine indication.

Yes, generics are very much a threat to AMRN, which is why no partner or suitor has materialized. You're mistaken if you believe Big Pharma is just waiting patiently for FDA to approve Anchor before striking a deal. AMRN has been for sale since before Vascepa was approved with no takers. The company didn't launch Vascepa on its own by choice.

I'm not entirely clear on what that Rx graph is supposed to show, but it doesn't add up to $100M in 2013 sales. Week over week Rx growth in the low teens at this stage of the launch is slow and lower than expected. This is not the pace by which Vascepa reaches $100M this year.

You fail to appreciate the backlash against prescription "fish oil" in the medical community, fueled by the failures like the niacin outcomes study. Demand is falling across the board for these drugs because of concerns that surrogate markers don't lead to real benefit. The Reduce-IT study is a huge risk for AMRN, and without positive data, Vascepa is going to have a hard time making inroads into the Anchor population.

Again, you're a talented writer. Keep up the good work. I just think you're on the wrong side of this stock.

Adam