Saturday, April 06, 2013 3:38:57 PM
Friday: Mystery Solved!
If anyone can poke holes, or add to my theory, please do. But I think I've figured out exactly what happened on Friday.
The short version
A single whale did a big $ flip and rained on our parade.
Here's some pictures showing what happened. Read below for a more in-depth analysis.
How did it go down?
Simple! Technical analysis was used to find a strong resistance point on the chart (200 MA) and ~30 million shares were gobbled up there in 2 minutes on March 26th, which started our bounce. Then just wait for some news to drop and put a sell order in for the next day on the open.
That dumping at the beginning of the day caused a tailspin of chaos in the market. Would more dumping occur? Nobody knew. Also, I think it short-circuited the MM algorithms. To them, it seemed like the market didn't want the price that high. So, they kept it down, not realizing it was an anomaly. And because of market uncertainty, there wasn't a big volume counter push to overcome that.
The bad news
Friday sucked! There's no two ways around it. And in understanding what happened, I feel bad for Koos and the company. It seemed like he tried to lay out a very transparent game plan to show the progress they are making and hired some promoters to get the word out. I assume everyone involved was feeling very optimistic about the day, and this event spoiled all of that carefully orchestrated work.
The good news
It seems pretty clear to me that this was an outside job. This had nothing to do with the fundamentals or direction of the company. It was a pure chart play.
The way I see it, the company, the promoters, and the market all went into the day feeling good about the news and the direction of the company! All of those shares being bought on the open tells me that. So I believe that once we are able to wash the stench of Friday off, we should correct course and head back up to a proper valuation. And I believe that is WELL above a penny at this point.
Moving forward
Unless someone can find fault in my analysis here, we should try to get the word out. The quicker the market realizes that this was a one-off speed bump, the quicker confidence will return and we can move on up.
Also, this reminds me of the old adage "Be careful what you wish for". This company is going places and everyone wants cheap shares. Well, guess what? The shares are cheap right now! Don't play games with the chart, or it'll play games with you.
I must say that I feel much better now that I understand what happened. And I hope you all do to! They can't keep us down forever. We will move up!
GLTA! Long and strong! BMSN
If anyone can poke holes, or add to my theory, please do. But I think I've figured out exactly what happened on Friday.
The short version
A single whale did a big $ flip and rained on our parade.
Here's some pictures showing what happened. Read below for a more in-depth analysis.
How did it go down?
Simple! Technical analysis was used to find a strong resistance point on the chart (200 MA) and ~30 million shares were gobbled up there in 2 minutes on March 26th, which started our bounce. Then just wait for some news to drop and put a sell order in for the next day on the open.
That dumping at the beginning of the day caused a tailspin of chaos in the market. Would more dumping occur? Nobody knew. Also, I think it short-circuited the MM algorithms. To them, it seemed like the market didn't want the price that high. So, they kept it down, not realizing it was an anomaly. And because of market uncertainty, there wasn't a big volume counter push to overcome that.
The bad news
Friday sucked! There's no two ways around it. And in understanding what happened, I feel bad for Koos and the company. It seemed like he tried to lay out a very transparent game plan to show the progress they are making and hired some promoters to get the word out. I assume everyone involved was feeling very optimistic about the day, and this event spoiled all of that carefully orchestrated work.
The good news
It seems pretty clear to me that this was an outside job. This had nothing to do with the fundamentals or direction of the company. It was a pure chart play.
The way I see it, the company, the promoters, and the market all went into the day feeling good about the news and the direction of the company! All of those shares being bought on the open tells me that. So I believe that once we are able to wash the stench of Friday off, we should correct course and head back up to a proper valuation. And I believe that is WELL above a penny at this point.
Moving forward
Unless someone can find fault in my analysis here, we should try to get the word out. The quicker the market realizes that this was a one-off speed bump, the quicker confidence will return and we can move on up.
Also, this reminds me of the old adage "Be careful what you wish for". This company is going places and everyone wants cheap shares. Well, guess what? The shares are cheap right now! Don't play games with the chart, or it'll play games with you.
I must say that I feel much better now that I understand what happened. And I hope you all do to! They can't keep us down forever. We will move up!
GLTA! Long and strong! BMSN
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