Bebida Beverage Company (BBDA)

[Whiplash_Investor]

I completed the spreadsheet and two charts on BBDA share issuances from Jul 09 to present (assuming 1st qtr 2013 is 63M). This time I've added the cash generated and avg PPS, adjusted to include any Compensation share issuances [BW uses $0], at the same PPS for the other issuances that are provided). I put a couple of notes on the charts.

My original purpose was to show that dilution caused by a need for cash has drastically reduced since June '12. But I was concerned about the "Front Loading" Olaf and others mentioned causing the illusion of reductions, BW might be intentionally showing the last two qtrs as 95% less, but he actually could have issued the shares early then sold them as needed during the last two qtrs.

In any case, the top graph is just the shares issuances by Qtr on the left Y axis and PPS issued/sold for on the right Y axis. The only one really guessed at is 1st 2013, since the actual issuance is unknown as TA is gagged, plus even though the average weighted PPS in Jan is $.0051, he's been showing all the issuances in the past at discounts to the actual PPS in the history. This is normal, since the debtors/creditors receiving shares as payment believe they will have to sell at a lower price because PPS will lower as they sell. Anyway, I discounted the 2013 issuance PPS to $.003. If someone would like a different figure, go ahead. All the other qtrs have the discount built in, so no need to guess.

The second graph is Share issuances again, but right Y axis is Cash generated. I assumed that this cash is needed to run the company, thus even the Compensation was accounted for (BW showed $0), but those shares are a small fraction of the total for all but the 1st qtr 2011, so not much impact anyway. What I conclude from graph 2 is two things 1) the front loading theory is unsupportable, which is good for longs...the cash generated is going down, not up and 2) the cash needed to fund operations for the last 6 months has gone down. Both the share issuances and the cash inflow needed recession is indicating the significantly reduced dilution I've been try to support with numbers is occuring, at least thru December 2012. But 1st qtr 2013 is indeterminant. We need to see the actual numbers to confirm the dilution will stay low. There could be from 0 to 200M sold and stay within the AS. Plus as Olaf has proven in a link to an old post, BW has exceeded the AS in the past and filed later (the situation, I think was back when AS was 500M and OS was actually 655M for a time until he fixed AS. So he is capable of that. Hence the key is what happens this qtr...and we'll have to wait until TA is ungagged or the qtr fins are released in May. In short, the result could go either way. So assimulate this and depending on your risk threshold, hold 'em, fold 'em, or buy.

I left the 5M preferreds registered with Wyoming out. Is it 5M or 500M? Who knows at this point and whether from conversion of common or new is also unclear?