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Sunday, February 03, 2013 9:45:24 AM
WEEKLY ANALYSIS 0203
By The wave trading
* Sunday, February 3, 2013
My short-term scenario has proven to be wishful thinking. I was looking for a potential Zig Zag down instead bulls have once again aborted a pullback that in my opinion has been delayed but not removed from a pending outcome.
Regarding the long-term count I maintain the scenario of a potential Ending Diagonal. If it pan out it will complete the Double Zig Zag wave (X) off the March 2009 low establishing a major top.
But instead of a expecting a larger subdivision of the wave (III) maybe price is approaching the end of this wave.
If this is the case then once the wave (III) is in place the next down leg, in order to be considered the wave (IV) of the Ending Diagonal, it will have to overlap below the peak of the wave (I).
The potential target for the wave (IV) could located in the range 1463.76 – 1435.50
Where could the assumed wave (III) top?
If we look at the monthly chart we have a potential range 1517.68 – 1530.
• 1517.68 = August 2000 eom print.
• 1530 = September 2000 peak & May 2007 eom print.
I cut down the target of the current up leg and consequently I expect a large pullback instead of a “mild “one due to the following reasons:
• Sentiment is reaching extreme bullish readings as can it can be seen on both the AAII Bull Ratio and the NAAIM Survey:
Sentiment is a contrarian indicator. It is useful in signalling pending corrections/trend reversal but it is not a timing indicator, therefore it has to be gauged in conjunction with breadth and momentum indicators...
Continued...Click here
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
By The wave trading
* Sunday, February 3, 2013
My short-term scenario has proven to be wishful thinking. I was looking for a potential Zig Zag down instead bulls have once again aborted a pullback that in my opinion has been delayed but not removed from a pending outcome.
Regarding the long-term count I maintain the scenario of a potential Ending Diagonal. If it pan out it will complete the Double Zig Zag wave (X) off the March 2009 low establishing a major top.
But instead of a expecting a larger subdivision of the wave (III) maybe price is approaching the end of this wave.
If this is the case then once the wave (III) is in place the next down leg, in order to be considered the wave (IV) of the Ending Diagonal, it will have to overlap below the peak of the wave (I).
The potential target for the wave (IV) could located in the range 1463.76 – 1435.50
Where could the assumed wave (III) top?
If we look at the monthly chart we have a potential range 1517.68 – 1530.
• 1517.68 = August 2000 eom print.
• 1530 = September 2000 peak & May 2007 eom print.
I cut down the target of the current up leg and consequently I expect a large pullback instead of a “mild “one due to the following reasons:
• Sentiment is reaching extreme bullish readings as can it can be seen on both the AAII Bull Ratio and the NAAIM Survey:
Sentiment is a contrarian indicator. It is useful in signalling pending corrections/trend reversal but it is not a timing indicator, therefore it has to be gauged in conjunction with breadth and momentum indicators...
Continued...Click here
George.
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
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