UFO'S and Extraterrestrials

[SPARK]

Jan 8, 2013 - If There Are 17 Billion Earth-Sized Worlds In Our Galaxy, The Universe Is Bubbling With Life

by Jesus Diaz

Astronomers have a mind-blowing new theory: that there are 17
billion Earth-sized planets in our galaxy.
They don't yet know how many of these worlds are in habitable zones, but the
implications of this discovery are amazing. So much that some
claim the "quest for a twin Earth is heating up."

Simply put: If there are 17 billion Earth-sized worlds In our
galaxy, it's clear that the Universe is bubbling with life. The
team, lead by Francois Fressin of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics, used the latest data from NASA's Kepler
mission to find that one in six stars have "a planet 0.8 - 1.25
times the size of Earth in an orbit of 85 days or less."

Of course, before we start with this alien life math wankfest,
let's answer a fundamental question: why are Earth-sized planets
important?

The answer is simple: Earth is the only habitable planet that we
know of. Scientists assume that, given the same set of
conditions - orbit time, distance from sun, gravity and
composition - life will develop in other star systems just like
it developed in Earth. Simplifying (and without knowing yet why
this is exactly), planets like Mars weren't big enough and
planets like Venus were too close.

Now, let's be really conservative and assume that only one
percent of those planets is in its star system's habitable zone.
That's 170 million Earth-sized worlds that may harbor some kind
of life. Let's keep being skeptical. Let's say that only one
percent of those planets have actually developed actual life.
That leaves us with 1,700,000 worlds bubbling with lifeforms.
It's most probable that these worlds would have a variety of
organisms but, continuing to be pessimistic, let's suppose that
only one percent of those Earth-sized worlds have developed
complex animals. That's 17,000 alternative Earths full of
three-headed monkeys or whatever.

Finally, let's presume that one percent of those planets'
animals have evolved so much that they have developed a
civilization similar to ours. That's 170 worlds, people. 170
worlds is one amazing number, at least for me.


Now, if that's not amazing to you, look at the number of
galaxies in the Universe.

The most recent computer simulation puts that number at 500
billion. Of course, not all galaxies have the same numbers of
stars, but since some are bigger than ours and some are smaller
that ours, let's just assume that it all evens out. Wait.
Let's be galactic jerks here and take 100 billion galaxies out
of the total number. 400 billion galaxies, each of them with
about 170 civilized worlds.

That's 79,900 billion planets with civilizations on them. Read
that number a couple of times. Of course, the Universe is an
awfully big place. So big that we may never encounter another
civilization.

But that's a minor point. The fact is that, even being
conservative, even if we further cut that number drastically,
even if we assume much lower percentages, even if we think that
some civilizations may have been destroyed by asteroids or wars
or some other kind of disaster - even if we just assume that,
out of those 79,900 civilizations, only one percent have
actually survived and thrived, that leaves us with 799 billion
civilizations in the Universe. Still too optimist for you?
Destroy 99% of those with Death Star lasers. That's still 7.99
billion civilizations.

Going one step further, and think about the chances of meeting
one of these civilizations. Let's presume that only one percent
of the 7.99 billion have mastered warp drives - Not a crazy
possibility! That's 79.9 million civilizations with Entreprises.
Oh, and all of this is assuming that only planets similar to
ours can harbor life. The fact is, we really don't know that
that is the case. But given what we do know, knowing how life
seems to thrive in the most desolate environments and looking at
these extremely negative scenarios, there's really no other
conclusion: We are just one of many. And when this whole thing
makes my head spin, that's good news. We are not alone. I have
no doubt that the encounter is inevitable. We just have to
survive long enough. But we will get there.
http://gizmodo.com/5974389/if-there-are-17-billion-earth+sized-worlds-in-our-galaxy-the-universe-is-bubbling-with-life