Wednesday, November 21, 2012 4:58:24 AM
Global Carbon Dioxide Levels Hit New Record in 2011
Posted: 11/20/2012 5:30 am EST Updated: 11/20/2012 10:51 am EST
GENEVA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Atmospheric volumes of greenhouse gases blamed for climate change hit a new record in 2011, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin [ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf ; via http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html ] on Tuesday.
The volume of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities, grew at a similar rate to the previous decade and reached 390.9 parts per million (ppm), 40 percent above the pre-industrial level, the survey said.
It has increased by an average of 2 ppm for the past 10 years.
Fossil fuels are the primary source of about 375 billion tonnes of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere since the industrial era began in 1750, the WMO said.
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said the billions of tonnes of extra carbon dioxide would stay in the atmosphere for centuries, causing the planet to warm further.
"We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs," he said in a statement.
Levels of methane, another long-lived greenhouse gas, have risen steadily for the past three years after levelling off for about seven years. The reasons for that evening out are unclear.
Growth in volumes of a third gas, nitrous oxide, quickened in 2011. It has a long-term climate impact that is 298 times greater than carbon dioxide.
The WMO, the United Nations' weather agency, said the three gases, which are closely linked to human activities such as fossil fuel use, deforestation and intensive agriculture, had increased the warming effect on the climate by 30 percent between 1990 and 2011.
The prevalence of several less abundant greenhouse gases was also growing fast, it said.
Sulphur hexafluoride, used as an electrical insulator in power distribution equipment, had doubled in volume since the mid-1990s, while hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were growing at a rapid rate from a low base.
But chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and most halons were decreasing, it said.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/20/global-carbon-dioxide-levels_n_2163612.html [with comments]
--
Greenhouse Gases Hit Record High in 2011
These charts show the concentrations and growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide from 1984 to 2011.
CREDIT: WMO
LiveScience Staff
Date: 20 November 2012 Time: 10:34 AM ET
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere hit a record high in 2011, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported [ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf ; via http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html ] Tuesday (Nov. 20).
Chief among these heat-trapping gases [ http://www.livescience.com/15393-greenhouse-gas-carbon-dioxide-emissions-methane.html ] is carbon dioxide (CO2), the biggest culprit behind global warming. Carbon dioxide levels reached about 390.9 parts per million last year, which is 140 percent of the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million and nearly 2 parts per million higher than the 2010 carbon dioxide level, according to the WMO report.
The international body estimates that about 413 billion tons (375 billion metric tons) of carbon have been released into the atmosphere since 1750, primarily from fossil fuel combustion. About half of this atmospheric carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, and much of it will linger for centuries, causing the planet to warm further, WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud warned.
Historically, the Earth's oceans and forests have helped balance the atmosphere's carbon equation by sucking up large amounts of the greenhouse gas. But Jarraud said natural carbon sinks might not be able to mitigate the problem as effectively in the future.
"Until now, carbon sinks [ http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/264-what-is-a-carbon-sink.html ] have absorbed nearly half of the carbon dioxide humans emitted in the atmosphere, but this will not necessarily continue in the future," Jarraud said in a statement. "We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic [ http://www.livescience.com/23601-ocean-acidification-sea-creatures-survival.html ] as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs. There are many additional interactions between greenhouse gases, Earth's biosphere and oceans, and we need to boost our monitoring capability and scientific knowledge in order to better understand these."
Greenhouse gases trap heat [ http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/671-what-are-greenhouse-gases-and-how-do-they-warm-the-earth.html ] within the Earth's atmosphere and create a warming effect on the climate known as radiative forcing. From 1990 to 2011, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases shot up 30 percent, with carbon dioxide blamed for about 80 percent of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Besides carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are also implicated in the greenhouse effect. In 2011, the level of methane in the atmosphere reached a new high of about 1,813 parts per billion, or 259 percent of the pre-industrial level, due to increased emissions from human activities, such as cattle breeding, rice farming and fossil fuel use. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide, meanwhile, hit about 324.2 parts per billion last year, or 120 percent of the pre-industrial level and 1 part per billion above the 2010 level.
*
Related
8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World
http://www.livescience.com/23026-global-warming-changing-world.html
The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted
http://www.livescience.com/19466-climate-change-myths-busted.html
*
Copyright © 2012 TechMediaNetwork.com
http://www.livescience.com/24919-greenhouse-gases-record-high.html [with comment]
===
Temperature targets unlikely to be met, UN World Meteorological Organisation says
With greenhouse gases pushing global temperatures to a new high, the UN says it is unlikely temperature targets can be met.
Source: AFP
November 21, 2012 9:44AM
THE volume of greenhouse gases causing global warming rose to a new high last year, the UN World Meteorological Organisation has said, warning it is becoming increasingly unlikely the world can limit rising temperatures to UN-backed targets.
Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the single most important man-made contributor to climate change - rose to 390.9 parts per million in 2011, which is 2.0 ppm higher than in 2010, the WMO said.
Pointing out that the worst warming gases - CO2, methane and nitrous oxide - had all reached new highs last year, the agency's Secetary-General Michel Jarraud said "it is getting increasingly unlikely" that a UN-backed pledge to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius could be achieved.
"Even if we were able to stop them tomorrow, these greenhouse gases will continue to have an effect for centuries," Mr Jarraud said at the launch of the annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin report in Geneva.
CO2 levels are at 140 per cent of the pre-industrial level before 1750, Mr Jarraud said. According to the WMO, about 375 billion tonnes of carbon have been released into the atmosphere as CO2 in the past 260 years.
"These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on earth," Mr Jarraud said in a statement.
"Future emissions will only compound the situation," he said.
Taking the long view on data to smooth out year-on-year anomalies, the WMO showed that while carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased on average 1.5 ppm during the 1990s, the average annual hike from 2000 to 2010 stood at 2.0 ppm.
"So it's not just increasing, it's increasing exponentially," WMO scientific officer Oksana Tarasova told reporters.
Mr Jarraud, meanwhile, pointed out that so-called "carbon sinks", including oceans, have until now absorbed nearly half of the CO2 emitted by humans, but stressed that "this will not necessarily continue in the future."
Five major gases account for 96 per cent of the warming of our climate, according to the WMO, which released its annual greenhouse gas report ahead of a new round of UN climate talks in Doha later this month.
"Between 1990 and 2011, there was a 30 per cent increase in radiative forcing - the warming effect on our climate - because of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping long-lived gases," the WMO said.
The levels of atmospheric methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2, also reached new highs in 2011, at 1,813 ppb.
This is 259 per cent of the pre-industrial level, WMO said, blaming mainly human activities like fossil fuel exploitation, cattle breeding, rice agriculture, landfills and biomass burning.
Also worrying was the increase in nitrous oxide levels, the WMO said, since its impact on climate is almost 300 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.
The gas, emitted into the atmosphere from natural and man-made sources, also plays an important role in the destruction of the ozone layer, which protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet rays, the WMO said, indicating that its atmospheric concentration in 2011 was about 324.2 ppb, up 1.0 ppb from 2010 and 120 percent of pre-industrial levels.
Copyright 2012 AFP
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/temperature-targets-unlikely-to-be-met-un-world-meteorological-organisation-says/story-e6frg8y6-1226520961626
===
We’re on pace for 4°C of global warming. Here’s why that terrifies the World Bank.
Drought in Yunnan Province, China.
Posted by Brad Plumer on November 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
Over the years at the U.N. climate talks, the goal has been to keep future global warming below 2°C [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/faq-can-the-durban-climate-talks-avert-catastrophe/2011/12/09/gIQAADqzhO_blog.html ]. But as those talks have faltered, emissions have kept rising, and that 2°C goal is now looking increasingly out of reach. Lately, the conversation has shifted toward how to deal with 3°C of warming. Or 4°C. Or potentially more.
And that topic has made a lot of people awfully nervous. Case in point: The World Bank just commissioned an analysis [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf ] (pdf) by scientists at the Potsdam Institute looking at the consequences of a 4°C rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100. And the report appears to have unnerved many bank officials. “The latest predictions on climate change should shock us into action,” wrote [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2012/nov/19/latest-predictions-climate-change-shock-action ] World Bank President Jim Yong Kim in an op-ed after the report was released Monday.
So what exactly has got the World Bank so worried? Partly it’s the prospect that a 4°C world could prove difficult—perhaps impossible—for many poorer countries to adapt to. Let’s take a closer look at the report:
1) The world is currently on pace for around 3°C to 4°C of global warming by the end of the century. In recent years, a number of nations have promised to cut their carbon emissions. The United States and Europe are even on pace [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/10/17/what-we-can-learn-from-europes-cap-and-trade-system/ ] to meet their goals. But those modest efforts can only do so much, especially as emissions in China and India keep rising. Even if all current pledges get carried out, the report notes, ”the world [is] on a trajectory for a global mean warming of well over 3°C.” And current climate models still suggest a 20 percent chance of 4°C warming in this emissions scenario.
2) The direct consequences of a 4°C rise in global temperatures could be stark. Four degrees may not sound like much. But, the report points out, the world was only about 4°C to 7°C cooler, on average, during the last ice age, when large parts of Europe and the United States was covered by glaciers. Warming the planet up in the opposite direction could bring similarly drastic changes, such as three feet or more of sea-level rise by 2100, more severe heat waves, and regional extinction of coral reef ecosystems.
3) Climate change would likely hit poorer countries hardest. The World Bank focuses on poverty reduction, so its climate report spends most of its time looking at how developing countries could struggle in a warmer world. For instance, a growing [ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n3/full/nclimate1356.html ] number [ http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~marshall/papers/Hertel_etal_GEC_2010.pdf ] of studies [ http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/1/014010 ] suggest that agricultural production could take a big hit under 3°C or 4°C of warming. Countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, and parts of Africa would also see large tracts of farmland made unusable by rising seas. “It seems clear,” the report concludes, “that climate change in a 4°C world could seriously undermine poverty alleviation in many regions.”
4) Yet the effects of 4°C warming haven’t been fully assessed — they could, potentially, be more drastic than expected. Perhaps the most notable bit of the World Bank report is its discussion of the limits of current climate forecasts. Many models, it notes, make predictions in a fairly linear fashion, expecting the impacts of 4°C of warming to be roughly twice as severe as those from 2°C of warming. But this could prove to be wrong. Different effects could combine together in unexpected ways:
For example, nonlinear temperature effects on crops are likely to be extremely relevant as the world warms to 2°C and above. However, most of our current crop models do not yet fully account for this effect, or for the potential increased ranges of variability (for example, extreme temperatures, new invading pests and diseases, abrupt shifts in critical climate factors that have large impacts on yields and/or quality of grains).
What’s more, the report points out that there are large gaps in our understanding of what 4°C of warming might bring: “For instance,” it notes, “there has not been a study published in the scientific literature on the full ecological, human, and economic consequences of a collapse of coral reef ecosystems.”
5) Some countries might not be able to adapt to a 4°C world. At the moment, the World Bank helps many poorer countries build the necessary infrastructure to adapt to a warmer world. That includes dams and seawalls, crop research, freshwater management, and so forth. But, as a recent internal review found [ http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/reports/climate_change3.html ], most of these World Bank efforts are focused on relatively small increases in temperature.
This new World Bank report is less sure how to prepare for a 4°C world. “[G]iven that uncertainty remains about the full nature and scale of impacts, there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible.” That’s why, the report concludes, “The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur — the heat must be turned down. Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen.”
So what sorts of actions might that entail? The International Energy Agency recently offered its own set of ideas [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/hows-the-world-doing-on-its-climate-goals-not-so-well/2012/04/29/gIQAdkiSpT_blog.html ] for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions and keeping future warming below 2°C. That included everything from boosting renewable energy to redesigning the world’s transportation system. But so far, nations have only made small progress on most of these steps.
Further reading:
– The full World Bank report is here [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf ].
– The International Energy Agency recently found [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/hows-the-world-doing-on-its-climate-goals-not-so-well/2012/04/29/gIQAdkiSpT_blog.html ] that the world is seriously lagging on its climate goals, apart from a recent boom in solar and wind power. But there are plenty of constructive suggestions in the report.
– Experts have warned that adaptation will be necessary even if the world does manage to limit global warming to only 2°C. (Greenhouse gases have already heated the planet about 0.8°C.) For more on that, see this earlier post [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/01/can-we-stop-the-seas-from-rising-yes-but-less-than-you-think/ ] looking at how even a 2°C world will likely see significant sea-level rise, albeit less than in a 4°C world.
© 2012 The Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/19/were-on-pace-for-4c-of-global-warming-heres-why-the-world-bank-is-terrified/ [with comments]
--
World Bank (Again) Warns of Developmental Setbacks From Climate Change
19 November 2012
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2012/11/world-bank-again-warns-of-develo.html [with comments]
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Globe Risks ‘Cataclysmic Changes’ From Warming, World Bank Says
Nov 19, 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/globe-risks-cataclysmic-changes-from-warming-world-bank-says.html [with comments]
===
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Posted: 11/20/2012 5:30 am EST Updated: 11/20/2012 10:51 am EST
GENEVA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Atmospheric volumes of greenhouse gases blamed for climate change hit a new record in 2011, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin [ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf ; via http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html ] on Tuesday.
The volume of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities, grew at a similar rate to the previous decade and reached 390.9 parts per million (ppm), 40 percent above the pre-industrial level, the survey said.
It has increased by an average of 2 ppm for the past 10 years.
Fossil fuels are the primary source of about 375 billion tonnes of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere since the industrial era began in 1750, the WMO said.
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said the billions of tonnes of extra carbon dioxide would stay in the atmosphere for centuries, causing the planet to warm further.
"We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs," he said in a statement.
Levels of methane, another long-lived greenhouse gas, have risen steadily for the past three years after levelling off for about seven years. The reasons for that evening out are unclear.
Growth in volumes of a third gas, nitrous oxide, quickened in 2011. It has a long-term climate impact that is 298 times greater than carbon dioxide.
The WMO, the United Nations' weather agency, said the three gases, which are closely linked to human activities such as fossil fuel use, deforestation and intensive agriculture, had increased the warming effect on the climate by 30 percent between 1990 and 2011.
The prevalence of several less abundant greenhouse gases was also growing fast, it said.
Sulphur hexafluoride, used as an electrical insulator in power distribution equipment, had doubled in volume since the mid-1990s, while hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) were growing at a rapid rate from a low base.
But chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and most halons were decreasing, it said.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/20/global-carbon-dioxide-levels_n_2163612.html [with comments]
--
Greenhouse Gases Hit Record High in 2011
These charts show the concentrations and growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide from 1984 to 2011.
CREDIT: WMO
LiveScience Staff
Date: 20 November 2012 Time: 10:34 AM ET
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere hit a record high in 2011, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported [ http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/documents/GHG_Bulletin_No.8_en.pdf ; via http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/GHGbulletin.html ] Tuesday (Nov. 20).
Chief among these heat-trapping gases [ http://www.livescience.com/15393-greenhouse-gas-carbon-dioxide-emissions-methane.html ] is carbon dioxide (CO2), the biggest culprit behind global warming. Carbon dioxide levels reached about 390.9 parts per million last year, which is 140 percent of the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million and nearly 2 parts per million higher than the 2010 carbon dioxide level, according to the WMO report.
The international body estimates that about 413 billion tons (375 billion metric tons) of carbon have been released into the atmosphere since 1750, primarily from fossil fuel combustion. About half of this atmospheric carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, and much of it will linger for centuries, causing the planet to warm further, WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud warned.
Historically, the Earth's oceans and forests have helped balance the atmosphere's carbon equation by sucking up large amounts of the greenhouse gas. But Jarraud said natural carbon sinks might not be able to mitigate the problem as effectively in the future.
"Until now, carbon sinks [ http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/264-what-is-a-carbon-sink.html ] have absorbed nearly half of the carbon dioxide humans emitted in the atmosphere, but this will not necessarily continue in the future," Jarraud said in a statement. "We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic [ http://www.livescience.com/23601-ocean-acidification-sea-creatures-survival.html ] as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs. There are many additional interactions between greenhouse gases, Earth's biosphere and oceans, and we need to boost our monitoring capability and scientific knowledge in order to better understand these."
Greenhouse gases trap heat [ http://www.lifeslittlemysteries.com/671-what-are-greenhouse-gases-and-how-do-they-warm-the-earth.html ] within the Earth's atmosphere and create a warming effect on the climate known as radiative forcing. From 1990 to 2011, radiative forcing by greenhouse gases shot up 30 percent, with carbon dioxide blamed for about 80 percent of this increase, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Besides carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are also implicated in the greenhouse effect. In 2011, the level of methane in the atmosphere reached a new high of about 1,813 parts per billion, or 259 percent of the pre-industrial level, due to increased emissions from human activities, such as cattle breeding, rice farming and fossil fuel use. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide, meanwhile, hit about 324.2 parts per billion last year, or 120 percent of the pre-industrial level and 1 part per billion above the 2010 level.
*
Related
8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World
http://www.livescience.com/23026-global-warming-changing-world.html
The Reality of Climate Change: 10 Myths Busted
http://www.livescience.com/19466-climate-change-myths-busted.html
*
Copyright © 2012 TechMediaNetwork.com
http://www.livescience.com/24919-greenhouse-gases-record-high.html [with comment]
===
Temperature targets unlikely to be met, UN World Meteorological Organisation says
With greenhouse gases pushing global temperatures to a new high, the UN says it is unlikely temperature targets can be met.
Source: AFP
November 21, 2012 9:44AM
THE volume of greenhouse gases causing global warming rose to a new high last year, the UN World Meteorological Organisation has said, warning it is becoming increasingly unlikely the world can limit rising temperatures to UN-backed targets.
Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the single most important man-made contributor to climate change - rose to 390.9 parts per million in 2011, which is 2.0 ppm higher than in 2010, the WMO said.
Pointing out that the worst warming gases - CO2, methane and nitrous oxide - had all reached new highs last year, the agency's Secetary-General Michel Jarraud said "it is getting increasingly unlikely" that a UN-backed pledge to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius could be achieved.
"Even if we were able to stop them tomorrow, these greenhouse gases will continue to have an effect for centuries," Mr Jarraud said at the launch of the annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin report in Geneva.
CO2 levels are at 140 per cent of the pre-industrial level before 1750, Mr Jarraud said. According to the WMO, about 375 billion tonnes of carbon have been released into the atmosphere as CO2 in the past 260 years.
"These billions of tonnes of additional carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will remain there for centuries, causing our planet to warm further and impacting on all aspects of life on earth," Mr Jarraud said in a statement.
"Future emissions will only compound the situation," he said.
Taking the long view on data to smooth out year-on-year anomalies, the WMO showed that while carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased on average 1.5 ppm during the 1990s, the average annual hike from 2000 to 2010 stood at 2.0 ppm.
"So it's not just increasing, it's increasing exponentially," WMO scientific officer Oksana Tarasova told reporters.
Mr Jarraud, meanwhile, pointed out that so-called "carbon sinks", including oceans, have until now absorbed nearly half of the CO2 emitted by humans, but stressed that "this will not necessarily continue in the future."
Five major gases account for 96 per cent of the warming of our climate, according to the WMO, which released its annual greenhouse gas report ahead of a new round of UN climate talks in Doha later this month.
"Between 1990 and 2011, there was a 30 per cent increase in radiative forcing - the warming effect on our climate - because of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping long-lived gases," the WMO said.
The levels of atmospheric methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2, also reached new highs in 2011, at 1,813 ppb.
This is 259 per cent of the pre-industrial level, WMO said, blaming mainly human activities like fossil fuel exploitation, cattle breeding, rice agriculture, landfills and biomass burning.
Also worrying was the increase in nitrous oxide levels, the WMO said, since its impact on climate is almost 300 times greater than that of carbon dioxide.
The gas, emitted into the atmosphere from natural and man-made sources, also plays an important role in the destruction of the ozone layer, which protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet rays, the WMO said, indicating that its atmospheric concentration in 2011 was about 324.2 ppb, up 1.0 ppb from 2010 and 120 percent of pre-industrial levels.
Copyright 2012 AFP
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/health-science/temperature-targets-unlikely-to-be-met-un-world-meteorological-organisation-says/story-e6frg8y6-1226520961626
===
We’re on pace for 4°C of global warming. Here’s why that terrifies the World Bank.
Drought in Yunnan Province, China.
Posted by Brad Plumer on November 19, 2012 at 11:28 am
Over the years at the U.N. climate talks, the goal has been to keep future global warming below 2°C [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/faq-can-the-durban-climate-talks-avert-catastrophe/2011/12/09/gIQAADqzhO_blog.html ]. But as those talks have faltered, emissions have kept rising, and that 2°C goal is now looking increasingly out of reach. Lately, the conversation has shifted toward how to deal with 3°C of warming. Or 4°C. Or potentially more.
And that topic has made a lot of people awfully nervous. Case in point: The World Bank just commissioned an analysis [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf ] (pdf) by scientists at the Potsdam Institute looking at the consequences of a 4°C rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100. And the report appears to have unnerved many bank officials. “The latest predictions on climate change should shock us into action,” wrote [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/poverty-matters/2012/nov/19/latest-predictions-climate-change-shock-action ] World Bank President Jim Yong Kim in an op-ed after the report was released Monday.
So what exactly has got the World Bank so worried? Partly it’s the prospect that a 4°C world could prove difficult—perhaps impossible—for many poorer countries to adapt to. Let’s take a closer look at the report:
1) The world is currently on pace for around 3°C to 4°C of global warming by the end of the century. In recent years, a number of nations have promised to cut their carbon emissions. The United States and Europe are even on pace [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/10/17/what-we-can-learn-from-europes-cap-and-trade-system/ ] to meet their goals. But those modest efforts can only do so much, especially as emissions in China and India keep rising. Even if all current pledges get carried out, the report notes, ”the world [is] on a trajectory for a global mean warming of well over 3°C.” And current climate models still suggest a 20 percent chance of 4°C warming in this emissions scenario.
2) The direct consequences of a 4°C rise in global temperatures could be stark. Four degrees may not sound like much. But, the report points out, the world was only about 4°C to 7°C cooler, on average, during the last ice age, when large parts of Europe and the United States was covered by glaciers. Warming the planet up in the opposite direction could bring similarly drastic changes, such as three feet or more of sea-level rise by 2100, more severe heat waves, and regional extinction of coral reef ecosystems.
3) Climate change would likely hit poorer countries hardest. The World Bank focuses on poverty reduction, so its climate report spends most of its time looking at how developing countries could struggle in a warmer world. For instance, a growing [ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n3/full/nclimate1356.html ] number [ http://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~marshall/papers/Hertel_etal_GEC_2010.pdf ] of studies [ http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/1/014010 ] suggest that agricultural production could take a big hit under 3°C or 4°C of warming. Countries like Bangladesh, Egypt, Vietnam, and parts of Africa would also see large tracts of farmland made unusable by rising seas. “It seems clear,” the report concludes, “that climate change in a 4°C world could seriously undermine poverty alleviation in many regions.”
4) Yet the effects of 4°C warming haven’t been fully assessed — they could, potentially, be more drastic than expected. Perhaps the most notable bit of the World Bank report is its discussion of the limits of current climate forecasts. Many models, it notes, make predictions in a fairly linear fashion, expecting the impacts of 4°C of warming to be roughly twice as severe as those from 2°C of warming. But this could prove to be wrong. Different effects could combine together in unexpected ways:
For example, nonlinear temperature effects on crops are likely to be extremely relevant as the world warms to 2°C and above. However, most of our current crop models do not yet fully account for this effect, or for the potential increased ranges of variability (for example, extreme temperatures, new invading pests and diseases, abrupt shifts in critical climate factors that have large impacts on yields and/or quality of grains).
What’s more, the report points out that there are large gaps in our understanding of what 4°C of warming might bring: “For instance,” it notes, “there has not been a study published in the scientific literature on the full ecological, human, and economic consequences of a collapse of coral reef ecosystems.”
5) Some countries might not be able to adapt to a 4°C world. At the moment, the World Bank helps many poorer countries build the necessary infrastructure to adapt to a warmer world. That includes dams and seawalls, crop research, freshwater management, and so forth. But, as a recent internal review found [ http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/reports/climate_change3.html ], most of these World Bank efforts are focused on relatively small increases in temperature.
This new World Bank report is less sure how to prepare for a 4°C world. “[G]iven that uncertainty remains about the full nature and scale of impacts, there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible.” That’s why, the report concludes, “The projected 4°C warming simply must not be allowed to occur — the heat must be turned down. Only early, cooperative, international actions can make that happen.”
So what sorts of actions might that entail? The International Energy Agency recently offered its own set of ideas [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/hows-the-world-doing-on-its-climate-goals-not-so-well/2012/04/29/gIQAdkiSpT_blog.html ] for curbing greenhouse-gas emissions and keeping future warming below 2°C. That included everything from boosting renewable energy to redesigning the world’s transportation system. But so far, nations have only made small progress on most of these steps.
Further reading:
– The full World Bank report is here [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf ].
– The International Energy Agency recently found [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/hows-the-world-doing-on-its-climate-goals-not-so-well/2012/04/29/gIQAdkiSpT_blog.html ] that the world is seriously lagging on its climate goals, apart from a recent boom in solar and wind power. But there are plenty of constructive suggestions in the report.
– Experts have warned that adaptation will be necessary even if the world does manage to limit global warming to only 2°C. (Greenhouse gases have already heated the planet about 0.8°C.) For more on that, see this earlier post [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/01/can-we-stop-the-seas-from-rising-yes-but-less-than-you-think/ ] looking at how even a 2°C world will likely see significant sea-level rise, albeit less than in a 4°C world.
© 2012 The Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/19/were-on-pace-for-4c-of-global-warming-heres-why-the-world-bank-is-terrified/ [with comments]
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World Bank (Again) Warns of Developmental Setbacks From Climate Change
19 November 2012
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2012/11/world-bank-again-warns-of-develo.html [with comments]
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Globe Risks ‘Cataclysmic Changes’ From Warming, World Bank Says
Nov 19, 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/globe-risks-cataclysmic-changes-from-warming-world-bank-says.html [with comments]
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