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Saturday, October 27, 2012 4:18:19 PM
Fortune Favors the Brave
October 27, 2012, 9:52 am
For a few days there the Romney campaign was boasting a lot about having Big Mo — and the press corps actually
fell for it, briefly. At this point, however, the reality seems to be sinking in: if Romney has Big Mo, it looks like this:
Despite the Denver Debacle and its aftermath, state polls are showing a clear Obama lead [ http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map ] in the electoral college, which if anything is getting a bit stronger. The polls could be systematically wrong — although the most likely sources of systematic error are undercounting of cell-phone-onlys and Latinos, both of which would suggest that Obama’s position is stronger, not weaker, than the polls say. Or there could be a game-changing event, even in these waning days. But the odds are strongly in Obama’s favor — three to one, says Nate Silver, even better than that, says Sam Wang. [ http://election.princeton.edu/ ] (I worry that Sam understates correlation, but that’s another story).
Why? Jonathan Cohn [ http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109159/obama-romney-gm-chrysler-detroit-rorschach-test ] singles out the auto bailout, and rightly so. I’d add, however, that the killing of Osama bin Laden mattered too. Foreign policy hasn’t been a big issue in this election, but that in itself is a big gain for Democrats compared with the usual taunt that they’re weak on terrorism or whatever; notice how hard Romney has tried to restart the usual meme, with negative success.
And what the auto rescue and the bin Laden strike have in common is that they were both very courageous decisions — decisions that could easily have gone wrong, that faced lots of second-guessing. You can criticize Obama for many things (and I have, and will in future), but he showed true grit when it mattered, and now seems likely to reap the reward.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/fortune-favors-the-brave/
October 27, 2012, 9:52 am
For a few days there the Romney campaign was boasting a lot about having Big Mo — and the press corps actually
fell for it, briefly. At this point, however, the reality seems to be sinking in: if Romney has Big Mo, it looks like this:
Despite the Denver Debacle and its aftermath, state polls are showing a clear Obama lead [ http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map ] in the electoral college, which if anything is getting a bit stronger. The polls could be systematically wrong — although the most likely sources of systematic error are undercounting of cell-phone-onlys and Latinos, both of which would suggest that Obama’s position is stronger, not weaker, than the polls say. Or there could be a game-changing event, even in these waning days. But the odds are strongly in Obama’s favor — three to one, says Nate Silver, even better than that, says Sam Wang. [ http://election.princeton.edu/ ] (I worry that Sam understates correlation, but that’s another story).
Why? Jonathan Cohn [ http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109159/obama-romney-gm-chrysler-detroit-rorschach-test ] singles out the auto bailout, and rightly so. I’d add, however, that the killing of Osama bin Laden mattered too. Foreign policy hasn’t been a big issue in this election, but that in itself is a big gain for Democrats compared with the usual taunt that they’re weak on terrorism or whatever; notice how hard Romney has tried to restart the usual meme, with negative success.
And what the auto rescue and the bin Laden strike have in common is that they were both very courageous decisions — decisions that could easily have gone wrong, that faced lots of second-guessing. You can criticize Obama for many things (and I have, and will in future), but he showed true grit when it mattered, and now seems likely to reap the reward.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/fortune-favors-the-brave/
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