ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

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Seismic estimates 1 billion barrels in Kenya trend.

This is by Simba Energy in Block 2A, which is along the Cretaceous basin trend which runs from the North East in Sudan with 6 Billion barrels already proven. Right through ERHC’s newly acquired Block 11A, and on through blocks being explored by Tullow and Marathon.

Oct 3 (Reuters) - Pan-African oil & gas explorer Simba Energy is to drill its first well in northeast Kenya in 2013, a company executive said on Wednesday, the latest effort by an energy firm to find oil in the east African nation.

The Canada-based explorer recently completed a passive seismic survey and believes there are at least one billion barrels of oil in the Kenyan block.

"Our focus is to drill. How fast can we drill ... I'd like to do it as soon as possible," Hassan Hassan, Simba managing director of operations, told reporters at the opening of its new office in Nairobi.

Interest in Kenyan exploration reached fever pitch this year after UK-based Tullow Oil discovered crude in the country's northwest Turkana region and over the next six months the company is due to drill its first well in Ethiopia.

According to Tullow’s partner Africa Oil which is exploring multiple targets along this trend in Block 10A and 9, and which just spudded the Paipai-1 exploratory well.

Over 6 billion barrels of oil discovered along trend in Sudan in similar geologic setting

These charts below show this geological trend runs right through ERHC’s block 11A.

(Scroll to bottom for all charts and text)

In Kenya, Block 9 and Block 10A are located in the Anza Graben. This is a Mesozoic basin related to similar Mesozoic basins of southern Sudan (Muglad Basin) where the petroleum system is proven and productive. The Muglad Basin is an analogue and provides calibration for the analysis of the prospectivity of these licenses. Block 10BB is located southeast of the Anza Graben Block 10A. The block is positioned within the eastern branch of the East African Rift analogous to recent discoveries made by Tullow Oil and Heritage Oil in Uganda within the western branch of the East African Rift.

Block 10BA is located in the northwestern part of Kenya within the Kenya Rift, which is part of the East African Rift System. The Block includes onshore areas to the east and west of Lake Turkana and offshore portions of the northern two thirds of Lake Turkana. Within the Block are several sub-basins and structural fault blocks that are considered part of the Kenya Rift. The Cretaceous age Anza Graben may extend west of Block 10A to underlie the Tertiary age rift system and could add deep exploration targets. Sub-basins include Lake Turkana North, Lake Turkana Central, Lodwar North and Kerio North.

It is a simply fact of Oil and Gas exploration, based upon the supporting science of geology and geophysics, that exploration is done in the basins and sub-basins along known prolific rifts. An example of this is the Western and Central African Rift system which stretches from the billions of barrels discovered in the Golden Rectangle of Nigeria, right through the proven petroleum basins in Chad, where ERHC has highly prospective exploration blocks, into the 6 billion barrel discoveries in Sudan, with Cretaceous extensions trending right through ERHC’s block 11A and the intersection of the Great Anza Rift and the East African Rift system.

Indeed, this idea of geological similarity is exactly what Tullow bet on in entering the frontier area of Kenya. The below quote from October 2011

Optimism surrounding the Kenyan programme is informed by recent oil discoveries in Uganda that, combined with the fact that the rocks that form the East African Rift System are about the same age, suggests a high potential for oil in Kenya. -Africareview

Resulting in the Ngamia-1 discovery.

Curiously enough, Tullow was right. And their theory of similar geology in sub-basins hundreds of miles apart has resulted in the Ngamia-1 discovery, believed bigger than Uganda billion barrel + discovery.

Ngamia oils similar to Ugandan oils – Africa Oil

The well, located in the Turkana County of Kenya Block 10BB, was drilled to an intermediate depth of 1,041 metres and has been successfully logged and sampled. Moveable oil with an API greater than 30 degrees has been recovered to surface. This oil has similar properties to the light waxy crude discovered in Uganda. –Tullow

Yet some would like to convince us that Tullow, Marathon, and the regions foremost scientists are all wrong, and what these experts say based upon science and theory, and prove through actual discoveries doesn't matter at all.

For some reason people want us to believe that drilling and discoveries in other people's blocks and in different basins that have completely different geology matter when they really don't matter at all. –midtieroil

The reason is this is exactly the theory Tullow used in seeing a possible geological mirror of their billion barrel + oil discovery in Uganda, hundreds of miles away in a separate sub-basin in Kenya. Apparently the geology is quite similar and this matters very much in the opinion of the actual industry experts. In fact prospecting along basins and sub-basins along common geological rifts is the mainstay of oil and gas exploration.

The combined acreage covers the Turkana Rift Basin which is similar in character to the Lake Albert Rift Basin and also a south-east extension of the geologically older Sudan rift basins trend. –Tullow

Not only did they test this theory, they made a major discovery in Kenya, Ngamia-1, which is believed larger than the Uganda basin they believed “similar in character”. The well discovered

over 100m of net oil pay opening up this entire onshore region as a potential major oil province.

Yes, “entire region”, which is why ERHC’s Block 11A is smack in the middle of the most prospective oil exploration region in Africa.

Following Tullow’s exploration success to date in Uganda’s Lake Albert Rift Basin, the company has extended its exploration acreage into the prospective East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia. -Tullow

So we see the industry’s most successful exploration company, Tullow, referring to the “East African Rift Basins of Kenya and Ethiopia.” as a common target with similar geology, which as it includes Blocks 10BA, 10BB, 10A, 12A and 13T in Kenya as well as the South Omo Block in Ethiopia, most certainly includes ERHC’s Block 11A in Kenya which is quite well known to be part of the East Aftrican Rift geology.

in fact ERHC's Block 11A is smack in the middle of Tullow’s targets, and the 6 Billion barrel discoveries to the North East in Sudan which is also part of this similar geology.

Actual knowledge of the geology, geophysics and the science of oil and gas exploration is very different from ‘strong opinions and rhetoric’ from those with zero experience or knowledge. The material I post is backed up with links to the companies and scientists doing the actual exploration for oil and gas in the area of ERHC’s highly prospective blocks.

We know that the blocks are highly prospective according to the opinions of the foremost experts in petroleum exploration and the science of geology, geophysics, including Tullow, the most successful company engaged in actual exploration who proves its knowledge through massive discoveries, industry leading success rates, and opening new, prolific petroleum basins in formerly frontier areas.

Compare and contrast folks. Actual due diligence supported with links and quotations, as opposed to strongly held opinions based upon hot air and zero knowledge or supporting documentation.

ERHE is still available for 14 cents and the proverbial Fat Lady has yet to approach the stage! When she starts singing, will 1 penny per highly prospective oil and gas exploration blocks be cheap, or expensive? That I can only guess at, but ERHE has a proven history of run-ups to 90 cents without a drop of oil being discovered.

Will history repeat or be exceeded when any of the following happen?

What happens to the ERHE share price when good targets are identified in any or all of the highly prospective blocks in Chad, Kenya, the EEZ, JDZ or future additions?

What happens to the ERHE share price when JV partners are added?

What happens to the ERHE share price when targets are drilled?

What happens to the ERHE share price when oil is discovered in one or more blocks?

Only the future will answer those questions in this high risk, potentially very high reward exploration business. In the meantime we look at the assets, look at the science, look at what companies like Tullow are doing all around us in Kenay, and place our bets.