SVNT read :
interesting from yahoo board :)))
End of the quarter is here. Does anyone want to take a guess at the revenue number for Q3? Here are the last 9 results:
q2 2012 - $4.60 MM
q1 2012 - $3.53 MM
q4 2011 - $3.71 MM
q3 2011 - $2.58 MM
q2 2011 - $1.98 MM
q1 2011 - $1.29 MM
q4 2010 - $0.96 MM
q3 2010 - $0.99 MM
q2 2010 - $0.99 Million
Since you posted the historic revenues, I thought I would post the revenues for Krystexxa alone. The generic weight gain drug sales will not be increasing and in the long run will be irrelevant. Here are the Krystexxa sales going back to approval. I will also give the number of accounts since that is something they provided as well. These are defined as accounts that have ordered Krystexxa at least once. It doesn't mean they ordered during that quarter (and mathematically is is clear they all don't order every quarter).
Q2 2012 - $4.0 MM - 677 accounts
Q1 2012 - $3.1 MM - 534 accounts
Q4 2011 - $3.0 MM - 419 accounts
Q3 2011 - $1.85 MM - 329 accounts
Q2 2011 - $1.1 MM - 140 accounts
Q1 2011 - $0.26 MM - 36 accounts
Q4 2010 - $0.02 MM - 1 or 2 accounts
This better illustrates the true ramp rate for revenues. The official sales launch was in late February 2011, but even then the sales team was not fully staffed. Some have pointed to late 2011 as being the time when they had a full sales team in place.
Some companies don't begin selling a drug immediately after FDA approval (sometimes the "launch" date is many months after approval). Savient represented that they were preparing to launch if not bought out, but there preparations were really almost nonexistent. I think it is foolish not to consider how poorly prepared Savient was to launch this drug when trying to analyze what the ultimate sales potential for Krystexxa might be.
Anyway, the most disappointing Quarter was Q1 2012 where there was only $0.1 MM increase (3.3%). This was right after the Tang lawsuit. One thing to note though is that the previous quarter's growth was $1.15 MM (62.1% growth!). So when you plot the growth on a chart it really looks more like that Q4 2011 was high, more than Q1 2012 being low.
I would recommend plotting the growth in K revenues and accounts. The slopes are very similar. Using the plots it looks like K sales should be around $5 MM this quarter. When you add the generic weight gain drug sales you get to the consensus analyst estimate. Historically, Savient generates sales in the range predicted by the analysts but generally lower than the consensus estimate.
They didn't beat the consensus revenue estimate last quarter. They beat the earnings estimate (estimated loss was less than projected) because of debt reorganization. Cost cutting will help with that as well, particularly after this quarter.
Will they beat revenue estimates this Q? If so, that would be huge. Actually just getting close should be good enough to support growth in the share price from these levels. Expectations have been very low for sales of Krystexxa by Savient's sales team. Perhaps expectations are low enough to beat now.
I would love to hear thoughts on this quarters numbers as well. Thanks for starting the thread.
Dan
Don't forget there was another 12% price increase in July this year.
My estimate is 5.5 m for this quarter.
I hope the company will provide some metrics in Q3 conference call so we can model better.
1) responser rate ( 42% from the trials)
2) vials for non-responser ( my estimate is 2 )
3) vials for responser ( my estimate is 12)
Based on my estimates, For year 2012, Savient probably will have 1000 Patients. Most accounts have less than 2 customers.
