The problem with ROC is that it is so volatile. So I created an indicator which takes the rate of change of a 50-Day Exponential Moving Average of price, rather than price itself.
As you can see, this has two major results:
[1] The indicator is much smoother, which means the signals are much easier to read correctly. (:
[2] Because the indicator has been smoothed quite a bit, the signals arrive much later than they otherwise would. }:
I think of this one as a rear-view mirror. It's not worth much as far as forcasting the future goes, but it can tell you whether that bottom or top that passed a little while ago was a big one or not.
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