Flatcat, I believe pretty firmly that .09 could be our low. (Plus, how much lower could we go than that anyway?).
Especially with the 2 recent Sean-initiated news releases taking some of the fear away. And the fact that the May 31 year-end financials (due any day) will likely show surprising revenue in the fourth quarter (perhaps even 6-figures revenue) that beats expectations. A third fact supporting .09 as the bottom is that, as an old-time GPGI holder, the lowest I ever saw GPGI was when I bought 50,000 at .017 almost a decade ago (equates to .085 BORK). That would make last month's .09 a sort of very-long-term successful re-test of the all-time low in this stock. And the fourth reason .09 could be the bottom is that there is no real bankruptcy risk anyway as the company's debt has been (at least what we know now) fairly insignificant.
I am not impressed by the volume currently though and think we may stay in this range of .09 to .19 in the short term and .09 to the .30s over the medium term of several months. Even with news. Because JB has done great damage to the stock by being so stingy with news releases. It took a little more than a year to go from $5.90 to .09, and going up would take alot longer than that under the best conditions.
But when it went up all that way the first time, we were all debating whether they had 23 million shares float or 180 million outstanding. Either way, we NOW know for sure that we have 300 million plus shares today, making another price rise to those same levels a much, much heavier and slower lift.
I say .09 to .19 in the short term because that's what we've done to date since the bottom. And .19, which was where there was the last support, becomes resistance now that it's been broken to the downside. I think we will need several high-volume attempts to rise and stay above .19 in the short term, and the first few attempts may well fail.
In the medium term, I pick the .09 to .30s range because I do, yes I do, believe we could see another re-test of .09 at some point. You know I believe in double bottoms as a sign of strength, everyone must know my approach by now, right?
Why the .30s as the top for the medium term range (several months)? Because the last 3 times we hit a new lower low, we popped up a little more than a triple shortly afterwards before falling back again. If you recall, after we fell off $2.20 to .55 intraday, we briefly rose again to $1.76, which was a little more than a triple of the .55. When we broke .55 to fall to .33, we then got all the way back up to 1.19 intraday, again a little more than a triple of the .33. And then when we broke .33 to fall to .19 intraday low, we got back up to .62 briefly -- amazingly, just a bit more than a triple of the .19.
Now we've hit .09 but we haven't seen our triple-plus. A triple-plus of .09, which has been the trend, would bring us into the .30s. This is a good sign, though, because the lack of a quick rebound to triple-plus range shows real conviction from most everyone that we really deserve to BE, and to STAY for awhile, at these low levels. Anotherwords - capitulation, which was what I have been looking for and posting about for months...
So all this means, there's nothing that seems imminent today or in the next few days. We'll likely stay at .09 to .19 for the short term (a few weeks), testing and eventually breaking through .19. Then we may get to the .30s, and it is at this point that we can look for something significant. If we can bust through the .30s at that point, then we will really be in an uptrend for the first time in 14 months. But, as happens with this stock, the .30s level is the triple-plus point of the .09 bottom, at which we could fall back all the way down to test the .09 bottom one more time.
Way after these ups and downs play out, though, if the .09 re-test is successful, we could go up sharply and quickly and well beyond the .30s as well.
Let's see if it all plays out the way I might expect. .09-.19 becoming the .30s, then falling back to .09 one more time before shooting up strongly and beyond the .30s.
Of course, if JB/Sean announces a multi million dollar deal with a company they actually name publicly, all bets could be off. But even a sharp fast rise beyond the .30s on such news could risk a fall-back, because as you know sharp increases don't often stick, it's the slow and steady increases that are the ones that endure.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it. This stock has been boring the last 3 weeks and I look for much more boredom to come. Volume has fallen back to lower levels, and even the far fewer postings on this board is a sign that people have capitulated and have lost interest in this stock as a quick money-maker.
It will take alot, and many months even years, to see our highs from June 2011 again.
