Sunday, July 15, 2012 1:53:13 PM
SPX/SPY review: almost all cycles pointing up, yet there are problems.
The 4.5 yr cycle in enclosed in the blue channel, and the 18 month cycle is enclosed in the red. IMHO, the mkt will hit a brick wall in the area of SPX 1400. However, all of the cycles except the 33day are moving higher, from the 18month to the 11day, and it would not be smart to fight the combination of forces.
That said, the TA picture argues for minimum target of 140.90, up to 142.50.
My assessment is that the risk/reward is not there. If some of the short term cycles get oversold, I might risk a long; but a reversal from the 1400-1430 area will bring out the heavy artillery.
Good trades, and peace.
Oddlot
The 4.5 yr cycle in enclosed in the blue channel, and the 18 month cycle is enclosed in the red. IMHO, the mkt will hit a brick wall in the area of SPX 1400. However, all of the cycles except the 33day are moving higher, from the 18month to the 11day, and it would not be smart to fight the combination of forces.
That said, the TA picture argues for minimum target of 140.90, up to 142.50.
My assessment is that the risk/reward is not there. If some of the short term cycles get oversold, I might risk a long; but a reversal from the 1400-1430 area will bring out the heavy artillery.
Good trades, and peace.
Oddlot
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