TRADING 04 FUTURES

[TREND1]

thursday update by tony caldaro


SHORT TERM: gap down opening - afternoon rebound, DOW -25

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported as expected at +1.9%, and weekly Jobless claims ticked lower: 386K vs 387K. The market gapped down at the open, for the second time this week, to SPX 1325 and slid to 1320 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1332 yesterday. After a rally attempt back to the opening level failed at SPX 1324 by 10:00, the market declined to 1315 by 10:30. Another rally attempt pushed the SPX back to 1320 by 11:30, but the market rolled over again. At 1:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120628a.htm. Then at 2:00 the FED released tomorrow's testimony today: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/martin20120628a.htm. At 2:30 the market hit its low for the day at SPX 1313, and then rallied sharply into the close. Just before the close the SPX hit 1330, and then ended the day at 1329.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost $1.75, Gold slid $17, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought yesterday, to slightly oversold today, and then rose to nearly overbought at the close. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment near 10:00.

Wild day! The market gapped down at the open, bounced around a bit while heading lower, then hit the OEW 1313 pivot. Just when the market looked like it was going to break down it rallied. The DOW took out its monday low during today's decline, but the SPX obviously did not. The short term OEW charts opened negative, then ended the day with a positive bias. Looks like the B wave rally from monday's SPX 1309 low is still underway.

Overall, the market remains between two OEW pivots: 1313 and 1363. Until one or the other is exceeded the medium term trend remains neutral.

Short term support again at SPX 1324/27 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance again at SPX 1334/38 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is nearing overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the swing point around SPX 1327. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: neutral - trading range between pivots

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp