Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

Tom Goldstein Publisher

Tom is the Publisher and a regular contributor to the blog, which he co-founded with Amy Howe in 2002. He teaches Supreme Court litigation at Stanford and Harvard Law Schools, and has argued 25 cases before the Supreme Court. Among other recognitions, Tom has been named 1 of the 50 most influential people in Washington, D.C. (GQ); 1 of the 40 most influential lawyers of the past decade and the 100 most influential lawyers in the nation (NLJ); 1 of the 90 greatest Washington, D.C. lawyers of the past 30 years and the leading appellate lawyers in Washington (Legal Times); and 1 of the 30 best lawyers in Washington, D.C. (Washingtonian).

Posted Wed, June 27th, 2012 11:22 am

In the end

In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it. I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.

Most observers disagree. There are certainly good reasons to believe the Court will invalidate the mandate. Most important, at the oral argument, the questions of two critical Justices – Justice Kennedy and the Chief Justice – were on the whole critical of the mandate’s constitutionality.

But in the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow. (I don’t have any inside information, nor does anyone else.) My prediction includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the Court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.

My level of confidence isn’t overwhelming, but it’s good enough to give a concrete prediction. We’ll see.


http://www.scotusblog.com/2012/06/in-the-end/

What the Heck? .. thought I'd post a contrary opinion by a qualified influential attorney! ... why the hell not ?