StormKing Revenue Estimates Repost (IMO)
After seeing the numbers in the quarterly report back on May 15, I "had" estimated my own personal projections for this Q2 2012 to be somewhere in the 120K neighborhood, or
April 2012c $40,650 30 days $1,355 per day
May 2012c $41,385 31 days $1,335 per day
June 2012c $39,300 30 days $1,310 per day
Total = $121,335
c = StormKing Projected revenues (IMO)
This total would have represented a +9% revenue increase YOY compared to Q1 2011, which was $111,479.
This projection was based on the company continuing to trickle out individual one-off apps here and there without any large projects coming to fruition by quarter's end, WHILE also recognizing that this could be revised if any "game-changing" (betch loved that I used that phrase LOL) apps were released.
NOW, with the release of the in-app purchasing module and key viral marketing ability with the May 30, 2012 update of RSW Free version, and witnessing the resulting shocking and significant spike in rankings and company reported blogs of new daily sales records each of the last 4 days, I have clear evidence to revise/increase my revenue estimates for the April 1 - June 30, 2012 quarter (Q2 2012).
Given that we know the previous high record day was $2,299 back in January 2011, we KNOW that the last 4 days have all exceeded that number in an incrementally increasing way. So, 5/31, 6/1, 6/2, 6/3 were all at least $2,300 per day. If you extrapolate that to monthly, and assume the impact of RSW Free update is reasonably sustainable through June, then we "could" be looking at an average in June, assuming, a conservative slowdown, of, say $1,800 per day, then I will revise my estimate to the following for Q2 2012 revenues:
StormKing Revised Revenue Projections for MRNJ Q2 2012
April 2012c $40,650 30 days $1,355 per day
May 2012c $42,160 31 days $1,360 per day
June 2012c $54,000 30 days $1,800 per day
Total = $136,810
c = StormKing Projected revenues (IMO)
This upward revision anticipates +22.5% revenue increase YOY compared to Q1 2011, which was $111,479.
It also would indicate sequential revenue growth over Q1 2012, which was $130,891.
Note: Argue that I should assume a $2,000+ number per day based on recent days if you like, but I prefer to maintain my estimates and err on the conservative side. There are still 26 days, or another twenty-nine percent of the quarter remaining and 4-5 days does not indisputably conclude that this recent revenue jump is sustainable.
Now, as for annual projections, last year the company booked $541,720 in revenue (~ $45K per month) and I have expected IMO, about $750,000 (or $62,500 per month) or +40% revenue growth for this year with the assumption of most revenues occurring on the back-end of the year during the holiday season and big projects released and realizing revenues by then.
Now, with $130,891 booked for the first quarter of the year, or 17% of my full year goal, and an assumption of another $137k for Q2, we would likely be loooking at $268K or 35.7% of our full year 750K by the halfway point. That leaves another $482K of 80k per month needed for the last half to attain.
Attainable...sure. If more in-app multiple in-app purchasing apps do half as well as free RSW, and Echkart Tolle TV subscription app grow far better than Glenn Harrold's UH pace, then sure, we can reach the 750K.
For now, I am opting to leave my 750K estimate unchanged pending more releases of mega-apps and further company activites.
I hope this provides a decent snapshot "template" to establish shareholder's expectations of revenues. Many "game-changing things" can happen this year as a result of mega apps, and greater company recognition by CONTENT owners over the next few months, so I reserve the right to revise this estimate as the year unfolds.
Debat/Discussion welcomed. All IMO.
Respectfully,
StormKing
