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ContraryInvestor<MAY Newsletter>The "Other" Cliff Event

Market Observations:

Intro:

Last month we penned a discussion entitled “Cliff Notes”. Naturally the commentary centered on what is to come January first of next year with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in addition to the automatic Federal spending cuts. Personally we expect some type of legislative intervention to soften or phase in what would otherwise be a cliff event potentially capable of knocking roughly 2% off of annual GDP growth. The trick, of course, is anticipating the interim reaction of not only the investment community, but also real business decision making as the chances of reconciliatory legislative action prior to the election are small. That leaves seven to eight weeks post the election to address these twin issues as well as current interim estate tax legislation that likewise sunsets at year end. What has become eleventh hour just-in-time legislative decision making patterns of the past few years will not fray a nerve or two prior? Good luck with that.

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