Global Value Investing

[Drexion2004]

Baja would be a very very good buy with copper at $2.5 btw ;). Sub $2 starts to become less so but note that the lenders assumed a copper cost of like $1.7 if I remember correctly. I used $2.4-$2.5 as my copper price when modeling Baja's cashflow personally (Due to the hedging they have in place).

I think calling for a avg 3.5% GDP growth from China for the rest of this decade, when they have done 8%-ish for the past decade is quite a radical call. I fully expect that their rate of growth will slow over time, since their economy is much larger and thus harder to maintain at a 'frenzied' pace -- but 3.5% is ridiculous IMHO.

I'm certainly not a China bear though. People who are should not buy ANY commodities, shippers or pretty much ANY non-defensive equities (like utilities).

-Fernando