Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

(Mild) Fear of Santorum

by SteveM February 14, 2012 5:30 pm

What’s got me a little worried about Santorum is that we’re assuming he’s eminently beatable because he got shellacked in 2006. But he seemed like part of the Republican power structure in 2006, and we—moderates as well as liberals—were thoroughly sick of that power structure by then, on everything from the Iraq War to the attempt to keep Terri Schiavo alive.

Now I worry that Santorum seems to some voters like the plucky underdog, even within his own party. Back when he was in office, his culture-war meanness seemed to have real clout, because he was part of a right-wing gang that didn’t like to take prisoners; at this moment, even to me, he comes off as almost harmless, although I’m fully aware of the fact that he’d be an awful, dangerous president.

Could he possibly do well against Obama if he wins the nomination (which I’m starting to think will happen)? Could he surprise us because voters might see him not as the nasty culture warrior he was when he had power, but as a gee-whiz aw-shucks Boy Scout, and figure he won’t really turn the clock back on abortion and contraception and gay rights (except for the old white cultural conservatives, who may think he really can turn the clock back, and who may be Democrats and independents like the ones supporting him in Michigan)?

And before you shout “Man on dog!” and point to poll results showing increasing support for gay marriage and persistent support for legal abortion, let me remind you that right-wing culture warriors are a hell of a lot more likely to vote their social-issue convictions than the rest of us are. Otherwise, how did Republicans win so many recent election cycles?

Public Policy Polling goes through the history of the not-Romneys and finds that Santorum is the first one [ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romneys-electability-argument-weakening.html ] to do better than Romney against Obama:

PPP’s newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.

... Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests. Santorum’s the first insurgent to challenge Romney on that front as well….

Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.

(Emphasis added.)

How is this possible? Well, I hate the scolding tone of this Jonathan Chait post, [ http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/02/romney-more-electable-than-santorum.html ] but I essentially agree with what he’s saying:

Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.

To put that in a somewhat more charitable way, I think a lot of committed liberals and urban sophisticates (I place myself in both categories) really do care more than the rest of the public about zealously protecting the right to have gay sex, non-marital sex, non-procreative sex, and only wanted children after any sex. Since these issues matter a lot to us, and Rick Santorum is not only on the wrong side on all of them but is so proudly and defiantly, he seems ickier to us than he does, perhaps, than he does to the rest of the public.

Now, I think plenty of swing voters and heartlanders will stand with us on some or all of these things when push comes to shove; even at the Applebee’s salad bar they hated Dan Quayle’s attempt to slut-shame single mothers a generation ago, and more and more heartlanders are cool with the fact that Ellen DeGeneres is gay. But if these aren’t make-or-break issues for moderate Middle Americans, which I think is the case, then they’re unlikely to have paid as much attention to Santorum over the years as we have, so right now he doesn’t look so bad to them. I don’t know if that will continue to be true if he’s the nominee and they learn more about him, but for now we shouldn’t assume that our view of him is shared by everyone who’s not a rightist.

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/02/14/mild-fear-of-santorum/