Portfolio up 6.9%, Dow up 4.23%, Nasdaq up top three 8.92%, S&P500 up 4.37% J-Blimps up 11.5%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy 5.4%, Gorilla Hunters 14.3%, Gilder2001 down 13.0%, OC-192 15.8%.
Best days in Nasdaq history percentage wise.
01/03/01 up 14.17% Greenspan drops rates unexpectedly 50 basis points for fed funds rate
12/05/00 10.48% Greenspan, crude dropping below $30 and positive election outcome
04/05/01 8.92% DELL affirms guidance and Alcoa has a good quarter. Yahoo got Lehman upgrade.
05/30/00 7.94%
10/13/00 7.87% Friday the 13th and a Full Moon too.
12/22/00 7.56 Santa Claus visited the Nasdaq
10/21/87 - 7.34%
4/18/00 - 7.19%
4/25/00 - 6.57%
4/17/00 - 6.56%
09/08/98 - 6.02%
12/08/00 – 5.99%
10/20/87 - 5.92%
11/14/00 5.78%
10/31/00 5.58% Halloween
NYSE Volume: 1.54 bln...Adv: 2303...Dec: 753 day 1
Up Volume 1343.33 Down Volume 195.53 day 1
New Highs 66 New Lows 26 day 1
Nasdaq Volume: 2.29 bln...Adv: 2832...Dec: 851 day 1
Up Volume 2175.91 Down Volume 86.37 day 1
New Highs 58 New Lows 105 19 days of 2/1
Put/Call ratio 0.70 (Range 0.70 to 0.86)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.
May natural gas $5.42 per million British thermal units. Up 26 cent.
VIX 34.98 down
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
DOT ($DOT) 202.95 +24.35 +13.63% Lehman upgrade to YHOO helped.
Collapse of the day
Gold ($XAU) 50.22 -0.07 -0.14% Some selling, but most everyone sat on what they had
QQQ at $37 Chart: gapped and held. Volume good, but not blazing. Blocks: 663/625 neg for 3 day. Volume%: 69
One stock
Dell Computer (DELL) up 13.52% Last night, PC maker issued press release stating plan to reaffirm Q1 earnings and revenue targets this morning at its spring analyst meeting. Company is maintaining quarterly targets of $0.17 a share, on $8 bln in revenue. CSFB makes comments after the direct computer systems maker reaffirmed Q1 guidance of $8 bln in revenues and earnings per share of $0.17; reports that management would not answer questions as to how it will achieve consensus EPS estimates with regard to lower gross margins vs. higher revenue growth and lower operating expenses; firm continues to believe that Dell will outperform the group, but cautions that group fundamentals could worsen near-term as pricing wars erupt.
Note: A TXN person of unknown reliability said DELL pumped up the numbers. Expect let down on both TXN and DELL on earning or the future.
Portfolio Watch
Every single stock was green!. RMBS, AMAT, BRCD, NTAP were up double digits.
Watch List things to watch but not trade
webMethods (WEBM) Up 11.76% Provider of integration software solutions expects to report Q4 results in the range of $0.00 to ($0.03), compared to a profit of $0.06 anticipated by Wall Street; puts revenue at $60-$62 mln (mean est. $65 mln). Company says it will need to reassess revenue guidance and further monitor cost structure given that its customers, in a number of cases, are deferring IT spending decisions
Note: Warned on a good day.
Those folks who have been calling for a V bottom should be happy with today, but most traders I know are still not believing this. This was the third largest % gain in the Naz ever. Also known as "crashing up". Dave Nadig on TSCM
Note: I don’t see the V bottom scenario. If it happened after April 15, maybe, but not now.
Verizon Comms (VZ) up 1.23%: Company's Verizon Wireless unit reports a 518,000 increase in net new customers during Q1. Merrill Lynch says Verizon Wireless report of a 518K increase in new customers was below firm's range of 575-750K (with most analysts at 700-750K). Thinks shortfall was due primarily to two factors that are, in this case, specific to Verizon Wireless; 1) a one-time adjustment to the prepaid base and 2) an increase in churn, in particular higher analog churn. Nevertheless, expects sector to be under pressure today as investors react to the news
Note: LU got 5B from them. Actual proof that the build our will need to begin. This a large increase despite ML negative waves.
Yahoo! (YHOO) Up 22.61% Lehman upgrades to BUY from MKT PERFORM; feels that at current levels, the downside on the stock is protected by takeover potential; convinced that the worst is over and the risk-reward on the shares is favorable for investors with a longer-term time horizon; firm has a 12-month price target of $20.
Note: Shorts hopping all over this. One more day and there will be some damage to the shorts.
I've been out of my old favorite JDSU for a while now, and glad of it. Morgan is telling clients this morning that they're hearing that order cancellations have suddenly slowed dramatically, and that new orders have actually unexpectedly picked up. Can you believe it? Good news in optical-land? Unheard of!! Morgan has had a hot hand in this space, and I'm going with them for a trade. Don Luskin on TSCM
Note: No access to note.
Emulex (EMLX) Up 36.00%: Company projecting that Q3 pro-forma earnings will approximate $0.13 per share, up roughly 30% from the yr-ago, but down from its earlier expectation of up to $0.23 (mean $0.20). Cites continuation of the downturn in Fibre Channel host bus adapter demand for need to lower forecasts. "It has now become clear that the progressive weakening of the economic climate impacted the storage networking sector during the first calendar quarter." Company has insufficient visibility to provide guidance on future quarters at this time.
Note: Can you imagine shorting on this at the open and watch it rocket up all day.
Extreme Networks (EXTR) AH Company warns for Q3; sees loss of $0.06-0.08 versus current consensus of $0.12; revenues seen at $110-115 mln versus $163 mln consensus; company also announces layoffs that will reduce cost structure by 10%; Extreme cites weakness in North America which delayed purchasing decisions at major customers. International sales rose to 61% of total from 50% in the Dec qtr. Company's sales force says that customers still dedicated to network plans, but have delayed spending. On conference call, company notes the following: book-to-bill was greater than 1 for the quarter; pricing environment did not see any major shifts; gross margins roughly 48% from 51.8% last qtr due primarily to reduced volume; in dollar terms international business was flat to down with almost all of the decline coming North America; most delayed shipments were delayed until next qtr; expects return to profitability this calendar year.
Note: I need to see cash and insider buying before buying this.
Sycamore Ntwks (SCMR) AH Company issues a warning for Q1; sees loss of $0.16-0.19 versus current EPS estimate of $0.05, and sees revenues of just $50-60 mln, a fraction of the $157 mln consensus; company also announces a restructuring and associated $140-150 mln charge to reduce costs. On conference call, company cites four reasons for the dramatic revenue shortfall: 1) two of its largest customers have recorded "little to no orders" this quarter; 2) cancellation of orders by smaller customers; 3) delays with ramping production of SN16000 optical switch; 4) negotiations with an emerging carrier that shifted from a cash deal to vendor financing that forced SCMR to walk away from the deal. On conference call, CFO says that SCMR "will not be generating cash from operations for the next several quarters." Stock still sinking, at 6 7/16.
Note: Now we know why insiders never bought once.
Agilent Tech (A) AH Company says dramatic change in orders will have a negative impact on Q2 results; company will also temporarily reduce employee pay by 10%; says that demand from "major customers has dropped dramatically in the last four to six weeks.
Note: Optical is worse now than a month ago.
Quote of the Day
This rally has probably trapped a lot of shorts. Today is the reverse of Tuesday, when the market couldn't rally one bit, but this session has seen no pullbacks at all. This may ensure a rally into option expiration day two weeks away. Wouldn't suprise me. Jay Shartis on TSCM
Note: There are some option millionaire made today. Just not me. I can’t see a two week rally into option expirations. Wishful thinking.
Summary
<I>4/5/01 Really no major warnings tonight. Maybe a dead cat bounce on the Nasdaq tomorrow.</I>
It looked good, but I’m not convinced. We are still 4% down on the Nasdaq for the week. A lot shorts got pounded so hedge funds are going to jack it and force more covering. The volume was good, but lower the two red days before.
Met with a railroad employee. 230K of employees supporting 860K retirees. System solvent for 20 years. Union Pacific is largest one out there. Rails are still the cheap way to move freight. Sector consolidating and been in a bear for years.
Jack
