Tornado Alley (PROG)

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roguedolphin, "Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong catch Niall Ferguson in a whopper on inflation."

Audit Notes: Inflation Inflation, FT on Frannie, Deep Downturns
Economic Crisis, The Audit — December 19, 2011 11:43 PM

By Ryan Chittum

Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong catch Niall Ferguson in a whopper on inflation. [insert headings]

PK .. Inflation Conspiracy Theories
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/18/inflation-conspiracy-theories/?pagewanted=all

BD .. Oh Boy: Niall Ferguson Practicing Economics without a License Department,,,
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/12/oh-boy-niall-ferguson-practicing-economics-without-a-license-department.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BradDelongsSemi-dailyJournal+%28Brad+DeLong%27s+Semi-Daily+Journal%29

NF .. The Fed may deny it, but Americans know that prices are rising. Inflation is back.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/05/01/sticker-shock.html

Ferguson:

And the reason the CPI is losing credibility is that, as economist John Williams tirelessly points out, it’s a bogus index. The way inflation is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been “improved” 24 times since 1978. If the old methods were still used, the CPI would actually be 10 percent. Yes, folks, double-digit inflation is back. Pretty soon you’ll be able to figure out the real inflation rate just by moving the decimal point in the core CPI one place to the right.

As Krugman points out, MIT’s Billion Price Project .. http://bpp.mit.edu/ .. shows prices have increased roughly 4 percent in the last three and a half years, essentially the same as what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. And that’s not 4 percent a year, that’s 4 percent total.

DeLong:

No. If the “old methods” were still being used, CPI inflation would not be 10%/year.
God alone knows where Niall Ferguson got this. God alone knows why he believes it.

— The Financial Times’s Shahien Nasiripour has some good analysis .. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8cc25a5a-2972-11e1-8b1a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gw9LYGLz .. on how an alliance between the New York attorney general and the inspector general of Fannie and Freddie could result in criminal prosecutions:

Documents and depositions taken by the FHFA Office of Inspector-General as part of its investigation into mortgage and securities fraud perpetrated against Fannie and Freddie - and by extension US taxpayers - can be shared with the New York attorney-general, and vice versa. Such information sharing could be used to build government-led lawsuits aimed at large banks for defrauding Fannie and Freddie or institutional investors.

The partnership is bolstered by Mr Schneiderman’s ability to use the Martin Act, a 1921 state law that allows him to bring misdemeanour and felony criminal charges against alleged wrongdoers doing business in New York. The prosecutor can operate across state lines, essentially acting on behalf of investors across the US.

— Steve Randy Waldman aptly calls .. https://twitter.com/#!/interfluidity/statuses/148923168957005824 .. this post .. http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/12/business-cycles-1 .. by The Economist’s Ryan Avent “very good high level thinking” on economic crashes:

If I were going to try to generalise this a bit, I’d suggest that a theory of deep downturns needs to have two key
ingredients. First, it needs a theory of big demand shocks. And second, it needs a theory of bungled policy responses.

A good and reliable candidate for the former might be a major episode of financialisation in the economy that coincides with a surge in capital flows. If there is then a sudden change or reversal in the pattern of capital flows, as often occurs, the financialisation of the economy amplifies the impact and a big demand shock is the result. I wouldn’t begin to suggest this is the only thing that ever generates big shocks. It is perhaps the most common and significant of the possible suspects, however.

A big shock will not, on its own generate a deep downturn, especially one of a sustained nature. To do that it needs an accomplice: bungled policy. Governments can and do get many things wrong in the wake of economic shocks, but few mistakes are powerful enough to reliably generate depressions. Monetary policy mistakes can.

http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/audit_notes_inflation_inflatio.php?page=all

PK and BD have been on the ball since this mess started, whereas, Ron ..

Speaking of People Whose Models Have Failed
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/speaking-of-people-whose-models-have-failed/

The Austerity Death-Trap .. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68239868

Falling Dollar Phobia .. http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/falling-dollar-phobia/

President Ron Paul – It’s A Done Deal
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67192165

Former Ron Paul Staffer Defends Paul Against Charges of Bigotry with Disturbing Examples of Bigotry
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=70425399 .. one of the replies ..

Ron Paul's Racism Isn't the Worst Thing About Him .. excerpt ..

To get a full handle on how bad Paul's record and positions are, here is a quick rundown of
his most offensive positions, those that would be the most damaging to the country. Ron Paul:

Would abolish the income tax
Would place the U.S. on the gold standard
Would allow citizens to engage in trade using gold and silver instead of currency
Would arbitrarily cut government regulations and believes that regulations only hurt businesses
Would eliminate the taxation of foreign income
Is a global warming denier
Says that Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are unconstitutional
Would eliminate antitrust laws
Would eliminate the federal minimum wage
Would eliminate the Davis-Bacon Act and the Copeland Act
Would eliminate the estate and gift taxes
Would tax all earners at a 10 percent rate
Would eliminate tax credits to individuals who are not corporations
Would eliminate the elderly tax credit, child care credit and earned income credit
Voted to make it easier to decertify unions
Opposes Federal Deposit Insurance
Would revert government spending to 2004 levels and freeze it there
Opposes raising the debt ceiling for any reason
Would allow people to opt out of Social Security
Says that widespread bankruptcy is the stimulus the country needs
Opposed the auto industry bailouts
Favors tort reform
Opposes the regulation of tobacco
Would protect the 'privacy' of online sexual predators and child pornographers on public wi-fi networks
Would prevent federal courts from protecting citizens who have their rights denied
Opposed the Motor Voter law
Would allow states to ban gay marriage
Sponsored the Marriage Protection Act
Would repeal affirmative action
Would limit the scope of Brown v. Board of Education
Says that emergency rooms should be able to turn away undocumented immigrants
Opposes the Americans With Disabilities Act
Voted anti-choice more than 90 times as a member of Congress
Voted to eliminate all international family planning funds
Voted for the Stupak amendment banning abortion coverage by private health insurance companies
Voted in favor of fetal personhood laws
Would eliminate all funding for Planned Parenthood
Would ban flag burning
Would weaken regulation of dietary supplements
Supports a ban on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research
Opposes subsidies for prescription drugs for seniors
Opposes mandatory vaccinations
Would expand offshore oil drilling
Would increase mining on federal lands
Would weaken the Clean Air Act
Would repeal the Soil and Water Conservation Act
Would weaken the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Would eliminate departments of Energy, Education, Agriculture, Commerce, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, and Labor
Would eliminate the Environmental Protection agency
Would eliminate FEMA
Would eliminate the Federal Reserve
Would eliminate the Occupational Health and Safety Administration
Would eliminate AmeriCorps
Would eliminate spending to combat AIDS overseas
Would eliminate gas taxes
Opposes the census gathering demographic data on Americans
Opposed the dismantling of U.S. nuclear missile silos
Wanted to withdraw the U.S. from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
Wants to claim the Panama Canal as sovereign U.S. territory
Opposes the International Criminal Court
Would withdraw the U.S. from the U.N.
Supports the electoral college and believes that the U.S. is not a democracy
Believes that we have no right to health care
Would eliminate birthright citizenship
Believes that law enforcement can't help people, only armed citizens can prevent violence
Would allow the legal sale of unpasteurized milk
Believes that groups of people don't have rights, only individuals do
Believes that government cannot redistribute wealth in any way
Believes in the concept of 'jury nullification', the idea that a jury can judge not only the facts in a case but the justness of the law itself
Believes that social welfare should be in the hands of individuals only, not government

Anyone that still thinks that a progressive vote for Paul is a legitimate vote under any circumstances doesn't know what the word progressive means. Anyone that thinks that Paul "understands the Constitution" and defends it either hasn't read the Constitution or doesn't know how to read. .. http://crooksandliars.com/kenneth-quinnell/ron-pauls-racism-isnt-worst-thing

NOTE: there are links inside for each in the above list.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=70425554