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mr_cassandra

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mr_cassandra

Re: desertcynlite post# 60238

Tuesday, 01/24/2012 9:09:16 AM

Tuesday, January 24, 2012 9:09:16 AM

Post# of 79025
intrigued, I took a quick 13 year spin thru my data base and find his idea would get you into some great trades during the rare years with pronounced low vix but the hidden bogeyman is whipsawing on his idea. By that I mean his idea says be long under 20 but cash over 20.

I lost track how many whipsays I saw back and forth of positions, losing 1-2 points at a time.

I have found in the past that many times an idea like this does not factor in your whipsaw cost, and in his case it would be substantial.

Please don't get me wrong, my own work has had many bad performances and mis-fires, I am just pointing out the rocky road from article to reality.

You CAN time the market!

But only after you trash the big 3 myths.

Myth 1 - its possible to get every point of every move
...Myth 2 - you'll never have a drawdown
......Myth 3 - you'll never have a loss

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