ETF SWING & DAY TRADING

[Duma]

MACD weekly went neg week ending 8/5 and did not recross until 1/6, so you are right some good trades would have been missed, so would some bad ones. I remember the Aug time frame well and I remember thinking maybe this was going to be the Euro melt down. I would not have any trouble missing trades.

On the chart below, the green lines indicate a positive VTO QQQ trade and the red ones, negative. I posted this chart last week to LKB and if I had just used the 12,26,30 cross over, I would have avoided the two bad trades and some good trades. Once MACD had made a good advance off the bottom, I would have no trouble with making buys. Again I remember the Dec buy and even though I did not do it, it was not because I was afraid of the market.

Whatever one might decide to use, the point is that if the market goes into a free fall, VTO is going to loose a lot of money as it did in 2008. So I still content that loosing out of a few good trades to protect the downside is very prudent by what ever method even if it is just a gut feel.

D Open__	Buy1	Buy2	Buy3	Sell	G1%	G2%	G3%	TG% 
 Trig->__	28	VTOM	VTOM	49				 
 ________	e	End of day or Open						 
 								 
 02/22/11	57.03	56.56		57.65	1.1%	1.9%		3.0% 
 03/10/11	56.14	55.49	54.15	55.5	-1.1%	0.0%	2.5%	1.4% 
 04/12/11	56.37			56.85	0.9%			0.9% 
 05/16/11	57.40			58.21	1.4%			1.4% 
 05/23/11	56.92	56.57		57.43	0.9%	1.5%		2.4% 
 06/06/11	55.89	55.79	55.39	55.23	-1.2%	-1.0%	-0.3%	-2.5% 
 08/02/11	56.27	54.17	53.83	54.36	-3.4%	0.4%	1.0%	-2.1% 
 08/19/11	50.03			52.28	4.5%			4.5% 
 09/22/11	53.58			55.35	3.3%			3.3% 
 09/30/11	52.49	51.14		53.53	2.0%	4.7%		6.7% 
 11/18/11	55.40	54.34	53.29	56.39	1.8%	3.8%	5.8%	11.4% 
 12/15/11	54.75	54.32		55.93	2.2%	3.0%		5.1%