Portfolio down 3.1%, Dow down 1.02%, Nasdaq down 3.11%, S&P500 down 1.25% J-Blimps down 3.3%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy down 3.3%, Gorilla Hunters down 4.5%, Gilder2001 down 5.8%, OC-192 down 4.6%.
NYSE Volume: 1,392 mln...Adv: 1171...Dec: 1855
Up Volume 382.95 Down Volume 994.01 Day 1
New Highs 66 New Lows 67
Nasdaq Volume: 1,821 mln...Adv: 1001...Dec: 2693
Up Volume 336.65 Down Volume 1412.36 day 1
New Highs 61 New Lows 303 Huge 16 days
Put/Call ratio 0.73 (Range 0.68 to 0.80)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.
May natural gas $5.10 per million British thermal units. Up 10 cent.
VIX 34.75 up
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Insurance ($IUX) 737.35 +11.28 +1.55%
Collapse of the day
Semis ($SOX) 503.17 -41.87 -7.68% Within the chip index, chip equipment stocks got hit in Monday trading. Applied Materials (AMAT) shares shed $3.50 to $40 and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) stock dropped $4.56 to $34.81. Novellus Systems (NVLS:) shares gave up 11 percent to $36.25.
Note: AMAT near $38 support.
QQQ at $37 Chart: descending Blocks: 382/554 neg for 1 day. Volume%: 63
One stock
Art Tech Grp (ARTG) down 50.26% Developer of CRM software warns of a Q1 loss in the $0.19-$0.22 range vs profit of $0.10 a share anticipated by analysts; puts DSOs at approx. 90 days... At end of the qtr, company saw large enterprise customers across many vertical industries delay technology purchases due to the current economic environment.
Note: Took whole B2B sector down today.
Portfolio Watch
Netro Corp (NTRO) down 13.75% : Provider of broadband wireless access solutions expects revenues to decline 61% on a sequential basis to $8.5 mln. Sees loss per share for the qtr significantly greater than current analyst estimates.
Note: Not good timing.
Watch List things to watch but not trade
American Express (AXP) down 3.85%: Warns that Q1 earnings will decline 18% from yr-ago net of $0.48. Wall Street had expected company to earn $0.51 for the qtr. The decline will reflect pre-tax losses of about $185 mln from the write-down and sale of certain high-yield securities held by American Express Financial Advisors. Without the pre-tax losses of $185 million from the write-down and sale of high-yield securities, American Express said profits would have come in flat with the year-ago quarter at 48 cents a share.
Note: Hit other financials too. High yield = junk bonds.
Investor redemptions from stock funds outpaced investments by $5.7 billion in the five trading days ending last Thursday, according to the latest data from liquidity tracker TrimTabs.com.
Note: More and more, investors pulling the wreckage into money markets.
RealNetworks (RNWK) up 7.08%: Formally announces deal with Warner Music Group, Bertelsmann's BMG Entertainment and EMI Group to license their music for RNWK's planned online music subscription service.
Note: Deal looks good, but the devil is in the details.
It has been a little more than a week since the market sent us one of its most reliable, yet least-seen bullish signals. Only seven times in the past 32 years has the 10-day moving average of the Arms Index for the New York Stock Exchange moved over 1.50. (The Arms Index shows the relationship between the number of stocks that increase in price and those that decrease, and the volume associated with those stocks.) In each case, it was a clear and timely signal that the market was ready to move higher. The occasions that it has given such a reading are at the bottom of a big decline in 1970, the bottom of the bear market in late 1974, the decline of 1980, the low just before the secular bull market lasting 17 years got started in 1982, the panic bottom in October 1987 and the big drop in 1997. In most cases, it was within a few days of the exact low. At the close on March 21, this index (which some traders may still be calling the TRIN) went to 1.61. Dick Arms in TSCM
Note: Neat stats if I could have seen the historical data charts. It is tracked on briefing.com
i2 Technologies (ITWO) Up 6.47% : Company warns Q1 (Mar) will be approximately $0.02 per share, current First Call estimate is $0.06; expects to report license and total revenues of approximately $210 million and $355 million respectively; cites current economic environment and the associated decrease in revenue visibility;
Note: Apparently the news is not as bad.
Manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth-straight month in March, though slightly less than expected, and price pressures decelerated sharply, according to a survey of U.S. purchasing managers. The NAPM index of manufacturing activity, which provides an early reading of economic conditions in the previous month, rose 1.2 points to 43.1 in March. "The overall picture is one of continued decline in manufacturing activity during the month of March," said Norbert J. Ore, the chairman of NAPM's business survey committee. "The manufacturing sector is in its eighth month of decline and appears to lack drivers sufficient to stimulate recovery."
Note: Mr. Ore said it all.
Dynegy (DYN) Company issues upside preannouncement for Q1 and expects earnings of about $0.40 vs current EPS estimate of $0.31; also lifts FY01 forecast to $1.92-$1.97 from current range of $1.80-$1.87;
Note: Tough to chase this in the weak season.
Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) The Sunday's editions of The New York Times reported that CEO David Rickey sold 800,000 shares of AMCC stock, roughly 90 percent of his holdings, between July 2000 and March 2 of this year. The article juxtaposed those sales, which were disclosed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, with Rickey's comments on financial news cable channel CNBC on March 2 when he dared investors not to own the stock. Applied Micro Circuits wasn't immediately available for comment. The New York Times said Rickey has sold more than 99 percent of his holdings in the San Diego, Calif., communications chip firm since 1999, making $170 million in the process.
Note: I was thinking selling this at $25 was a mistake. Now at $14.
Ariba (ARBA) Company warns; sees a significant loss from operations of approx. $0.20 a share, vs profit of $0.05 expected by analysts; puts revenues at approx. $90 mln (mean $175.2 mln). Company says experienced a large unexpected drop-off in our sales closure at the end of the qtr; notes that impact was primarily in N. America, but is beginning to be felt in Europe as well... ARBA responding to downturn in business by reducing workforce by about 700 employees or one-third
Note: Tech news keeps on depressin’
President Bush issued a strong statement to the Chinese on Monday, demanding a "prompt and safe return" of 24 military crewmen and a U.S. Navy electronic surveillance plane that made an emergency landing in China on Sunday morning after colliding with a Chinese F-8 fighter jet that had been dispatched to intercept it.
Note: Talk is cheap. Haven’t seen if we were over their territorial waters.
New Focus (NUFO) Company reaffirms Q1 revenue guidance of $38-41 mln and announced the departure of Paul G. Smith, VP and general manager for a portion of the company's telecom business.
Note: Never good to have management fleeing a company ina downtrend.
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission this afternoon, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A:NYSE)disclosed it owns 8 million shares or 0.9% of the Gap (GPS:NYSE) and 4.9 million, or about a 4% stake, in GPU Inc. (GPU:NYSE), an electric utility in the NE United States. Buffett's investment in the Gap amounts to approximately $204 million and his GPU stake is about $181 million.
Note: Buffet bought Ann Taylor and others last year. The utility investment is interesting.
Redback Ntwrks (RBAK) Company warns for Q1; expects revenues to be approx. $85-$90 mln (mean $133.4 mln); plans to reduce workforce by 150 people, or about 12%
Note: Hit after hit.
I've heard of "sell on the news," but this is re-dick! Intersil, which is one of our largest positions, and to which we added pre-opening, is getting clobbered. Should be a moment of defining triumph. Microsoft is abandoning BlueTooth and HomeRF, and embracing 802.11 as the anointed survivor in wireless networking standards. Intersil is the purest play in the space. It should be on fire, but instead it's burning down. Tough game, huh? Don Luskin on TSCM
Note: Wi-lan is the pure play in the area.
Inktomi (INKT) : Company warns for Q2; sees a loss excluding items of $0.23 to $0.25 per share vs the First Call consensus of ($0.04); sees Q2 revenue between $36-$38 mln. Company also plans to cut roughly 25% of staff. Cites faster than expected decline in economic conditions in both the United States and Europe;
Note: Cheap from 52wk high. But can it survuve?
Internet security solutions company Rainbow Technologies (RNBO) said it expect a loss of between 7 cents and 10 cents a share. Previously, the company anticipated a profit of 6 cents, while the three analysts polled by First Call expected a profit of 5 cents a share. The company cited lower sales, due to order delays.
Note: Waiting for SYMC and CHKP to warn next.
Entrust Tech (ENTU) : Company warns for Q1; sees loss in the range of $0.32 to $0.34 per share (vs estimate of $0.02 profit), on revenues of $31 to $32 mln. Cites a significant reduction in expected software license sales primarily attributable to the slowing U.S. economy;
Note: No surprise here.
The average price for a single terabyte of storage capacity -- enough to hold 20,000 music CDs -- has dropped 24% in the last three months to $100,000, according to Enterprise Storage Group, a Milford, Mass., research firm. That compares with a drop of just 12% in the prior quarter. Overall, prices for raw storage capacity have been halved in the last 15 months, but software and other attachments often add to the final cost of storage capacity. Tony Prigmore, an analyst with the firm, attributes the accelerated decline to "more diligence and negotiating" by customers.
Note: Lower margins, tough climate.
BroadVision (BVSN) : Company warns for Q1; sees revenue between $85 and $90 mln and basic pro-forma loss per share, pending review of non-recurring items, will be in the range of $0.14 to $0.16 vs First Call mean estimate of $0.02 profit. Company to cut approximately 325 people, or 15% of the Companys workforce;
Note: Death rattle is occurring
Quote of the Day
Inevitably, this selling will one day abate and normalcy will return to our noble profession. When that occurs, you can be sure that the hibernating bulls will climb out of their cardboard boxes to proclaim that, in hindsight, it was obvious, that we should have known. That they knew. Todd Harrison on TSCM
Note: Someday, yep.
Summary
Another grinding day. Sell into rallies still the theme. Waiting for April 15 to pss by to buy.
Jack
AI
