The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/16/11)_TY_George
* Wednesday, November 16, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We are looking at the QQQ as it gives more clues to what may happen near term then the SPY. The “Three Drives to a Top” in October produced a negative divergence in the McClellan Oscillator which predicted a pull back of which it did. Another negative divergence by the McClellan Oscillator in early November produced another pull back in the QQQ. Yesterday the QQQ tested the gap level near 58 on lighter volume and showed the gap has resistance. The QQQ is virtually unchanged over the last month and a breakout of this trading range is coming soon. It appears the first move out of this trading range may be down and may find support near the gap level of early October near 55. The evidence can change quickly but right now the evidence is for a pull back. Seasonality is bullish into January and the bigger trend appears up, so if the market does pull back we will look for a buy signal. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.
Above is the TRIN/TICK ratio updated to the present, dating back to mid 2005 and is an intermediate term view of the S&P. The TRIN/TICK ratio doesn’t give many signals but has been good when it does develop a signal. A bearish sign develops when the TRIN/TICK ratio falls to .01 (which it has now). This bearish signal has stayed in the bearish level for over a week now. Previous signals of this type have identified tops that where relative significant and therefore is keeping us alert. Readings in the .01 range and below have lead to pull backs in the market which is what we are expecting short term but we are not expecting a significant pull back. The next several days of trading may help clear the picture. Staying flat for now.
We have updated this chart to current time frame. Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to 1984. Since 1984 only eight buy signals has been generated, counting the current buy signal which was triggered September 30. To refresh, the top window is the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio. When the monthly RSI of this ratio falls below 35 then the first part of this two part signal has been met. The recent monthly RSI reached 29.95 back in September. The second part of the signal and to trigger the buy signal comes when the slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closes above 20. The Slow Stochastics closed above 20 on September 30 and triggered the buy signal. The 1986; 1992; 2000; 2005 and 2008 buy signals of this type all produce gains of 100% or more over the next 12 months or so. The two signals that didn’t, came in 1998 and 1999 which produced a gains some where near 25%. On a short term basis, GDX could pull back possibly to 58 or lower and we will be looking a bullish setup on the potential pull back.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, November 16, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We are looking at the QQQ as it gives more clues to what may happen near term then the SPY. The “Three Drives to a Top” in October produced a negative divergence in the McClellan Oscillator which predicted a pull back of which it did. Another negative divergence by the McClellan Oscillator in early November produced another pull back in the QQQ. Yesterday the QQQ tested the gap level near 58 on lighter volume and showed the gap has resistance. The QQQ is virtually unchanged over the last month and a breakout of this trading range is coming soon. It appears the first move out of this trading range may be down and may find support near the gap level of early October near 55. The evidence can change quickly but right now the evidence is for a pull back. Seasonality is bullish into January and the bigger trend appears up, so if the market does pull back we will look for a buy signal. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.
Above is the TRIN/TICK ratio updated to the present, dating back to mid 2005 and is an intermediate term view of the S&P. The TRIN/TICK ratio doesn’t give many signals but has been good when it does develop a signal. A bearish sign develops when the TRIN/TICK ratio falls to .01 (which it has now). This bearish signal has stayed in the bearish level for over a week now. Previous signals of this type have identified tops that where relative significant and therefore is keeping us alert. Readings in the .01 range and below have lead to pull backs in the market which is what we are expecting short term but we are not expecting a significant pull back. The next several days of trading may help clear the picture. Staying flat for now.
We have updated this chart to current time frame. Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to 1984. Since 1984 only eight buy signals has been generated, counting the current buy signal which was triggered September 30. To refresh, the top window is the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio. When the monthly RSI of this ratio falls below 35 then the first part of this two part signal has been met. The recent monthly RSI reached 29.95 back in September. The second part of the signal and to trigger the buy signal comes when the slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio closes above 20. The Slow Stochastics closed above 20 on September 30 and triggered the buy signal. The 1986; 1992; 2000; 2005 and 2008 buy signals of this type all produce gains of 100% or more over the next 12 months or so. The two signals that didn’t, came in 1998 and 1999 which produced a gains some where near 25%. On a short term basis, GDX could pull back possibly to 58 or lower and we will be looking a bullish setup on the potential pull back.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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