Global Value Investing

[ratobranco]

I should also say that I will cover/cut losses if:

(1) ECB agrees to begin widescale debt monetization.

(2) Republicans agree to enact payroll tax cut holiday extension with no offset (in other words, US makes 2012 a year where the deficit is not meaningfully reduced--I don't think Republicans will do this because they don't want to goose the economy in advance of Obama's reelection efforts).

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/11/us-washington-summit-tax-payroll-f-idUSTRE7AA41320111111

Those measures could push the timeline for reckoning back. I also have a technical level in mind at which I will get myself to a market neutral position--close above 1300. By my analysis, that move will take my portfolio down about .6% from here, assuming HDGE can equal perform the inverse SPY. The loss will be even less if oil names outperform, which I think they will.