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2012 PLAY Agfeed (FEED )- Hog meat business with both USA and China operations.

Run by US management after Chinese management was removed.
2012 price target 2$-8$

Chartwise big chart reversal in the progress (see chart at the bottom)
Oct 2011 market cap under 50mln, book value a multiple of that

2011 forecasted revenue 320 mln
2012 forecasted revenue > 700mln of which >60% in the united stated

Overall:
-Alltime high prices for hog meat in china 2H 2011
-Chinese pork consumption still rising very fast, biggest pork market in the world allready
-Very strong sector outlook by big companies in this sector like Smithfield (SFD) , also SFD sees insider buys Q3 2011.

Company specific:
-New western style hog plants in china populated in Q1 2011, expected to yield from Q1 2012 onwards
-USA vertical integrated planned with meat processors Kansas Saucage and Pine ridge, mostly intended for chinese exports.
-Stock sold off with all the other chinese stock, but is actually cleaning up their books and is now run american.

Low debt levels and cheap market cap !!

Recent events:
Mid 2010: Chinese company merged with US based M2P2 hog production expertise company
In the past very rapid growth but no corresponding profitability
Q4 2010 : old chinese management was fired and restructuring including chinese layoffs started
Q1 2011 : New american management appointed, including some top ex mcdonalds managers (meat industry background)
-Q1-Q3 2011 Writeoffs in book value for some 2007 and 2008 acquisitions which were overpayed for by old management
-Q1-Q3-2011 Writeoffs in accounts receivable for some the 2007-2008 farms and part of the chinese nutritional operations.
-Q1-Q2 2011 Some 80-85% of those allready written off on book value

July 2011: Company CEO Stadler presented outlook for 2011 and 2012. Projected 2012 Revenue > 700 million US dollar.
(as they also filed with the SEC, be sure to see the last slide on revenue projections)
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1331427/000114420411040991/v228787_ex99-1.htm

Q4 2011: Intended vertical integration in the US: As communicated by the company in summer 2011:
"The Company also announces that it has entered into separate non-binding letters of intent to acquire Pine Ridge
Farms, LLC ("PRF") and Kansas City Sausage Company, LLC ("KCS"). It is expected that the combined businesses will
add over $180 million of annualized revenue and over $13 million of EBITDA to the Company's results.
" ( http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AgFeed-Industries-Inc-prnews-2175526133.html?x=0&.v=1)

Sept 2011 : Company announced Kansas City CEO to join the board of directors of Agfeed.
Before closing of the transaction there will be a final check and clean up of the chinese accounting books.
Deadline for the exclusivity letter of intent set at december 1st.
Final writeoffs that allready have started in past two quarters should occur after this committee concludes its business. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AgFeed-Industries-Inc-prnews-1646245657.html?x=0&.v=1

Sept 2011: Agfeed reaches agreement with Iowa state to allow it to pursue vertical integrated company.
http://www.state.ia.us/government/ag/latest_news/releases/sept_2011/AgFeed.html

Sept 2011 : 50k Insider at the market buy:
http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=feed

Weekly self updating chart with trendlines (should load below here) :