Tornado Alley (PROG)

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Best perspective I've seen re; Iowa poll...

Behind Bachmann’s Iowa Victory

She gets a big boost from the straw poll, while Pawlenty is toast, Jill Lawrence reports. But can the congresswoman expand her Christian conservative base?

...The overwhelming support for Bachmann and Paul—28.6 percent and 27.6 percent, respectively—amounted to a primal scream from conservatives outraged by the Obama presidency. Pawlenty tried to make the case that he had put conservative ideas into practice in a liberal state. It didn’t cut much ice with the fired-up multitudes, at least in the limited universe of Iowans mostly bused in by the campaigns for the nonbinding event.

The other establishment candidates (read: those with executive experience) skipped the event. Former governors Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman are focusing for now on New Hampshire. Texas governor Perry, viewed widely as the one candidate with the potential to dislodge Romney from his lead in many state and national polls, was in Charleston, S.C. There he declared his presidential candidacy at exactly the moment that Iowa GOP chairman Matt Strawn was welcoming the White House hopefuls to Ames.

The split screen pretty much defined the day for everyone—reporters in Ames watching Strawn while listening on headsets to a C-SPAN feed of Perry; potential GOP donors pondering where to place their bets; and, above all, Republican candidates as well as President Obama adapting to a landscape abruptly reshaped by the straw-poll results and Perry’s official entry.

The outcome of the straw poll -- and Pawlenty's quick decision to quit the race -- reinforced its role as a winnower of the field but not necessarily a predictor of the nominee or even of a winner of the leadoff Iowa caucuses. Romney won the straw poll in 2007, but lost the caucuses to Mike Huckabee and the nomination to John McCain (who made little effort and placed last in the straw poll). Other past winners include Pat Robertson and Phil Gramm.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/13/behind-michele-bachmann-s-iowa-victory-in-the-ames-straw-poll.html

Bolds are mine