Natcore Technology Inc (NTCXF)

[JB3729]

domasselin, I'll take a stab at Natcore's projected revenue per gigawatt from the LPD AR coating.

Some guesstimate about AR business until 2015:

Last known estimate for 10% market made in 2010: 50M$

PV global capacity in 2010 based on EPIA numbers: 30GW

30GW * 10% = 3GW = 50M$


EPIA conservative PV forecast for 2015: about 130GW

Potential market revenufor Natcore = 130GW - 30GW (already installed) = (100GW/3GW) * 50M$ = 1.6B$

This, without pricing Black Silicon stuff

Anyone wants to try to do some maths?

For starters, ck1234 had posted information from the original 2009 power point ...

From the 2009 powerpoint...

Natcore projected $25 million in revenue based on 10% of market share. The market has grown and so a smaller % market share may generate the same revenue.

Natcore projected $5.00 revenue to it per 150 watt/panel. The cost of AR on a 150 watt panel was projected at $22.00/panel. They figure they could cut it in half for a producer to $11.00/panel. The producer could also gain the benefit of being able to use thinner panels which would translate to much larger gains for the company as it is the most costly part of the production of a panel.

I hope that helps.

According to Tom Scarpa's email response to questions, this projection still stands ...

We anticipate that TLNZ will use black silicon. They use 200 micron thick wafers at the present time.

The revenue projections were taking out of the PP at the request of the TSX. They don’t like to see projections even if they can be substantiated from market research. We do believe that our revenue projections are still valid.

Above, I also included Tom's statement regarding black silicon and the dimension of wafers currently used by TLNZ. We could see additional revenue from the black silicon and a reduced thickness of the wafers.

The $5 of revenue for each 150 watts should apply to today's larger panels (200 watts for instance), as the larger panels require more silicon wafers.

1,000 watts = kilowatt
1,000,000 watts = megawatt
1,000,000,000 watts = gigawatt

1 gigawatt divided by 150 watts = 6,666,000 X $5 = $33,330,000 per gigawatt of revenue to Natcore

In the detailed EPIA Report you posted ... http://www.epia.org/european-photovoltaic-industry-association.html

Global annual market scenarios of the pv market are listed in Figure 29. We have to reduce the figures by 20% to obtain the silicon pv markets annual gains. This is a list of the projected average annual gains of installed pv and the 20% reductions.

2012 ... 17 gigawatts X .80 = 13.6 gigawatts
2013 ... 24.5 gigawatts X .80 = 19.6 gigawatts
2014 ... 29 gigawatts X .80 = 23.2 gigawatts
2015 ... 34 gigawatts X .80 = 27.2 gigawatts

Trying to figure out how much of this future yearly installed pv will be AR coated by NIPS (Natcore Intelligent Process System) is guess work at best. We know that Natcore believes that the LPD process is a disruptive technology and Natcore stated that up to 500 employees will work at the Joint Venture NIPS manufacturing facility (500 employees can fabricate a huge number of NIPS). We also saw MicroTech's CEO's statement referring to Natcore's LPD Process, calling it a paradigm shift.

Some possible revenue scenarios, excluding revenue from the sale of the NIPS ...

10% market share in 2013 = 1.96 gigawatts X $33 mil = $64.68 mil

20% market share in 2014 = 4.64 gigawatts X $33 mil = $153.12 mil

30% market share in 2015 = 8.16 gigawatts X $33 mil = $269.28 mil

By mid 2013 Natcore should have their roll to roll thin film product commercialized. By the end of 2014 Natcore's tandem cell should be commercialized. These two products could provide unfathomable revenue!

To me, outside of the LPD technology, the number one reason to own Natcore is their business plan. I'm expecting 40% plus net income on revenue. Natcore may be able to run their entire business with 30-40 employees, including their lab people. With growth and net income this high, it is reasonable to expect a high P/E ratio.

All IMO,

JB

ck1234, please, don't be a stranger!