Thursday, July 14, 2011 6:47:12 PM
JBII chart comparison with Light crude oil futures (CL)
Ok, here we go. Top chart is oil futures. Bottom chart JBII. I think the comments on the charts speak for themselves, but I'll add a little more here. The arrows match on each chart, give or take a couple days for the most part, starting with arrow #4. From arrow #6 to arrow #10, JBII traded with more strength, but it still moved similarly up & down with the oil contract. From arrow #10, JBII made a climax move to 4.20 while the oil contract took a dump. And, now that I look at it, JBII traded much stronger than oil from arrow #4 on to #10. After the climax move that occurred right after arrow #10, JBII has essentially been catching up with the drop that oil took which started at arrow #4 on the CL chart.
As for what happens next, I'd say that it's likely JBII has caught up with the drop oil had and that today may prove out to be the climax bottom move of this decline. If the 1.76 low from today doesn't hold, then we're looking at the 200ma on the daily chart at 1.52. I'm not so familiar with JBII's trading at this time that I feel comfortable predicting what could happen, but I'll throw out a couple simple scenarios...
If there are shorts here, (and I believe there are), and they are looking to cover, then watch for a gap down open, a move down to the 200ma and likely below to around 1.47 in order to scare out desperate longs, and then a strong bounce from there back above the 200 ma and back above $2.
If the longs aren't crapping themselves in fear after they look at the stock price tonight, and instead respond with excitement and wire funds into their brokerage accounts tomorrow, then we'll likely gap up at the open. I personally would rather see a small gap down to flat open, then we don't have to deal with the psychology that "all gaps get filled" on a gap up in the morning. If we do gap up, then let it be a small one that gets filled quickly and let's get on with things. I'll go nuts if we gap up tomorrow and don't fill because the JBII board will likely fill up with the usual BS debates about how all gaps get filled. (Most of them do, but not all of them do. It depends upon the fundamentals).
Anywho, I'd like to see a flat open, (indicating we had a double bottom today on the interval charts), or gap down to maybe 1.60 - 1.47 tomorrow and then reverse back up on strong volume to >$2.20 in short order, like in the first couple hours of trading. This will be a good sign that we've had our climax lows and can start looking up again. (The reason for a move back above $2.20 regardless of how low we go tomorrow is because it is the 50% point of today's drop. The sooner and the higher we get above that the prettier this chart is going to start looking, imo.
Ok, here we go. Top chart is oil futures. Bottom chart JBII. I think the comments on the charts speak for themselves, but I'll add a little more here. The arrows match on each chart, give or take a couple days for the most part, starting with arrow #4. From arrow #6 to arrow #10, JBII traded with more strength, but it still moved similarly up & down with the oil contract. From arrow #10, JBII made a climax move to 4.20 while the oil contract took a dump. And, now that I look at it, JBII traded much stronger than oil from arrow #4 on to #10. After the climax move that occurred right after arrow #10, JBII has essentially been catching up with the drop that oil took which started at arrow #4 on the CL chart.
As for what happens next, I'd say that it's likely JBII has caught up with the drop oil had and that today may prove out to be the climax bottom move of this decline. If the 1.76 low from today doesn't hold, then we're looking at the 200ma on the daily chart at 1.52. I'm not so familiar with JBII's trading at this time that I feel comfortable predicting what could happen, but I'll throw out a couple simple scenarios...
If there are shorts here, (and I believe there are), and they are looking to cover, then watch for a gap down open, a move down to the 200ma and likely below to around 1.47 in order to scare out desperate longs, and then a strong bounce from there back above the 200 ma and back above $2.
If the longs aren't crapping themselves in fear after they look at the stock price tonight, and instead respond with excitement and wire funds into their brokerage accounts tomorrow, then we'll likely gap up at the open. I personally would rather see a small gap down to flat open, then we don't have to deal with the psychology that "all gaps get filled" on a gap up in the morning. If we do gap up, then let it be a small one that gets filled quickly and let's get on with things. I'll go nuts if we gap up tomorrow and don't fill because the JBII board will likely fill up with the usual BS debates about how all gaps get filled. (Most of them do, but not all of them do. It depends upon the fundamentals).
Anywho, I'd like to see a flat open, (indicating we had a double bottom today on the interval charts), or gap down to maybe 1.60 - 1.47 tomorrow and then reverse back up on strong volume to >$2.20 in short order, like in the first couple hours of trading. This will be a good sign that we've had our climax lows and can start looking up again. (The reason for a move back above $2.20 regardless of how low we go tomorrow is because it is the 50% point of today's drop. The sooner and the higher we get above that the prettier this chart is going to start looking, imo.
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