Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

[jackhartmann]

Portfolio up 0.2%, Dow up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 1.63%, S&P500 up 1.99% J-Blimps down 0.2%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy up 3.3%, Gorilla Hunters up 2.3%, Gilder2001 up 2.9%, OC-192 up 0.2%.

NYSE Volume: 1,365 mln...Adv: 1976...Dec: 1040 day 1
Up Volume 1048.17 Down Volume 301.54 day 1
New Highs 59 New Lows 57

Nasdaq Volume: 2,281 mln...Adv: 2485...Dec: 1228
Up Volume 1300.51 Down Volume 936.55
New Highs 25 New Lows 89 Still 10 days of 3/1

Put/Call ratio 0.52 (Range 0.52 to 0.58)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.

April natural gas $5.27 per million British thermal units. Up 6 cents.

VIX 34.90
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.

Sector Watch

Breakout of the day
Banks ($BKX) 807.40 +41.78 +5.46% Wells Fargo & Co. shares jumped 3.3 percent to $1.43 to close at $45.43. Earlier the company said it would buy financial services firm H.D. Vest Inc. for $127.5 million, or $21.03 per share, in cash. The price represents a 200 percent premium from the $7 that H.D. Vest shares closed at Thursday.
Note: This should have went down not up.

Collapse of the day
Gold ($XAU) 48.88 -0.62 -1.25% All three indexes green so gold gets sold.

QQQ at $42 Up 1.63% Chart: 3/21 Trend reversal signaled by Friday. As the Friday red streak was broken Blocks: 786/832 neg for 1 day. Volume%: 71

One stock

McDATA (MCDT) Up 25.47% Wit SoundView is hearing that EMC is leaning toward pushing MCDT ahead of BRCD as its preferred fabric switch platform. MCDT also thought to be benefiting from word in the market EMC is working on embedding a switch into a new storage product and EMC has chosen MCDT as the supplier. Other perspective suppliers were BRCD and QLGC.
Note: This may be ugly if EMC support MCDT. BRCD has market share and this could create a wall around EMC.

Portfolio Watch

Applied Materials (AMAT) Up 1.64%: Extends stock repurchase program following the expiration on March 22 of its prior plan. New authorization allows the company to repurchase up to $2 bln of its common stock over the next three years in the open market.

Pharmacia (PHA) up 6.80%: Company discontinuing research programs for progenipoietin and PNU 101387. ProGP was being studied to stimulate bone marrow recovery following chemotherapy. PNU 101387 was in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of schizophrenia. Company proceeding with the development of Camptosar for small-cell lung cancer but will no longer pursue registration of an indication in non-small cell lung cancer.

Deere & Co (DE) Bear Stearns downgrades to NEUTRAL from ATTRACTIVE as analyst meeting yesterday failed to reinforce confidence in near-term earnings outlook; firm cuts EPS estimates by $0.15 this year to $1.85 from (recently cut) $2.00; suggests swapping DE for CAT.
Note: Those rate cuts will help eventually.

Scholastic Corp. (SCHL) won the bidding to acquire the inventory of former Internet retailer eToys Inc., but said its bid is contingent on its winning all of the stock of the reorganized company.
Scholastic's bid of 30 cents on the dollar was the highest offer for eToys' inventory at the auction, said Howard Steinberg, an attorney representing the toy retailer.
Note: They have cash and this is what they are buying. Odd.

Watch List things to watch but not trade

Avici Systems (AVCI) Down 6.49% Enron Broadband announced today plan to reduce 2001 capital expenditures from an expected $750 mln to $250 mln or less. According to Merrill Lynch, company has been surprised by the availability of leased bandwidth. Enron is one of the three customers that generate 10% or more of Avici's business. Enron, Qwest, and AT&T made up over 90% of the company's revenue last qtr
Note: Big news on the downside. May be $10 soon.

Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at Gruntal, described as "irrational selling" in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision Tuesday to lower interest rates by 50 basis points, rather than the hoped-for 75 or even 100. But despite the midweek signs of capitulation (albeit controversial), Ginzburg isn't convinced the worst is over because the advance late Thursday and Friday was without a significant catalyst. "I do think we can have two or three good days, but I feel it's an impossibility we're out of the woods," he said. "I still think we're in the sixth or seventh inning of a nine-inning ballgame" of selling. That said, the trader also noted "good institutional buying" Friday and the fact "people want to buy stocks" and that the level of cash on the sidelines is "unbelievable."
http://www.thestreet.com/p/markets/aarontaskfree/1359776.html
Note: Be nice to get a figure on the cash.

Nortel Networks (NT) Down 4.34% In pre-market comments, Dain Rauscher Wessels stated that channel checks performed by firm indicated that orders for Nortel's OC-12 and 48 products began picking up a couple of weeks back, with the long-haul products (OC-192) showing improvement in the last week or so; these are the first positive data points firm has seen in the last couple of months.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) down 5.38% In pre-market call, SG Cowen reduced its Q3 est. for company to $0.06 from $0.11, putting Cowen well below the $0.14 mean. Feels that Q3 could come in below firm's est. if CSCO makes the strategic decision to not pursue higher-risk, vendor-financed opportunities. First Union reduced estimates on Cisco following discussions with industry sources at this week's Optical Fiber Conference, says no one saw a pick-up in service provider spending before next year; First Union cuts Apr qtr revenue estimate to $5.7 bln from $5.9 bln and EPS to $0.09 from $0.11; also sees an increasing risk that Cisco will preannounce, which would send stock to low/mid teens. Paul Sagawa from Sanford Bernstein, is saying that Cisco is going to have a sequential revenue decline that may be more than 15%, and maybe as low as 19%
Note: A double shot in the chest to CSCO. Chart shows people selling any rally. It will need to base a while. I like Sagawa, He said the fiber optics were too high in the fall. I thought dropping 30% was enough. Sagawa is proved right in hindsight.

With Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq) move into the WiFi market, ISIL's dominance in wireless networking is complete. No matter how much Proxim wants to believe, the writing is on the wall: 802.11 is winning, and HomeRF is as good as dead. Luckily it took the stock a few days to catch up, giving investors time to catch the wave. Dave Nagig on TSCM
Note: ISIL balance sheet reveals the truth. INKT dominates the internet caching business yet sucks wind. ISIL may be the gorilla, but the revenues and profits have to show some improvement.

Nucor (NUE) Lowers Q1 earnings outlook to $0.40-$0.44 (mean estimate of $0.54), citing continued weak pricing environment for steel products.
Note: Still no bottom or firmness in steel

Micron Electronics (MUIE) plans to exit the PC business and refashion itself as a Web-hosting services company by acquiring Interland for $130 million in stock.
Note: Bad strategy. Enter a dying market during death spasms.

Adaptec (ADPT) Warns Q4 revenues will fall short of projections and be down sequentially from Q3 by an additional 10-12%, driven by channel inventory pressures worldwide.
Note: PC market still not healthy

World Wrestling Federation Entertainment (WFE) is buying the ailing World Championship Wrestling from AOL Time Warner Inc., ending an intense rivalry that has inflamed professional wrestling fans for more than 20 years
Note: Wrestling is fading. Now if we can figure out the next big thang.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) Sources at Wit SoundView saying that firm has learned that Hitachi (HIT) has taken some of SUNW's business at EBAY; SoundView believes SUNW will use its balance sheet to make its $0.07 estimate, but out-quarters are at risk
Note: New product out, but will it sell. SUNW gets hit of old products selling at 10 on the dollar hurting SUNW. Would anyone buy my 486/33 PC, no. his is the value of older SUNW products. So much has changed in the technology in 18 months. Support building off base at $17.50.

Nokia (NOK) Company's board of directors approves the repurchase of up to 50 mln Nokia shares through public trading. The repurchases will begin on March 30 at the earliest.
Note: NOK using the stagnant cell phone market to get more market share. Support at $21. Maybe worth a try on a dip above support.

Bowater (BOW) Company warns for Q1; sees $0.50-0.60; current EPS estimate is $0.78. Cites production curtailments in newsprint and market pulp, as well as the decline in market pulp pricing;
Note: Paper stocks trading at low end of two year range. One worth a try since energy declining and lower interest rates will help debt load. Negative ad revs reported by print media hurting.

Reliance Steel (RS) BB&T Capital Mkts upgrades to STRONG BUY from LONG TERM BUY rating due to the recent price decline over the past month; firm says RS has a history, and the potential, for growth; company has posted double-digit top- and bottom-line growth for the past ten years, and firm believes company will continue to grow at a 12%-17% pace both organically and by the acquisition of other service centers; price target is $34.
Note: Analyst babble at its best

Quote of the Day

"The question is whether all the bad news on profits is out," said Nick Sargen, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, which manages funds for wealthy individuals. "The revision to profit expectations is the severest in memory, but it still begs the question of when the economy will pick up."
Note: We are seeing a little break here and there on the economy.

Summary

We saw a seesaw battle all day. Tough to see the outcome when in the war so I bowed out and watched. When the risk reward is even, the market is not the place to be.

April 15 should see the end of tax loss selling. The tricky question will buying begin then or early. Since we are in a mirror image reversal of last year. The tax selling week may be a strong one for the techs. We were down 25% last year that week.

Been watching CREE build a base. Could run 10% to $19.50.

On a side note, the Chicago Bulls beat Charlotte in OT. Good athlete, weak coaching. I did see them use a handheld wireless Symbol Technology bar code scanner, but the discounted merchandise and the regular price had to be rung up separately. I got a behing the scene tour. Lower level skyboxes were $150K a year with an eight year lease. Apparently Jordan help sell them in the first year. $45K for the second level ones. Courtside only runs $450 a game and are sold to season ticket holders. $85 for a row back. Such a deal. Food was nearly $5 for everything. 32oz Pepsi was $5. The bathrooms were spotless at the United Center. I figured it cost me $200 to take one son there.
http://209.100.85.31/photos/p11.JPG is the tourist photo by the Bulls of me and my son.

Jack