Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

[lowtrade]

DIS

Personal eval, I lean bull on a position trade scenario. But would feel better about that in July, due to Double Top chart pattern target, being reached. I'd love to see the reversal before becoming a strong bull.

1 year position trade chart;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIS&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88358464323

Chart follows patterns very well. Right now Nothing to indicate bottom yet. Support 37.50, target for double top was reached at 38. So bottom could be expected.

Fundamentals show institutional selling, with analysts positive. (Conflict) Very little short interest. PE a little high, for the industry, at this price level still. But I see no reason for June action. PE could have been part of the reason for selling, but most of the industry saw the same.

Financials good. Both ROA/ROE/ROI and Gross/Oper/Profit margins are balanced and strong, saying good management control.

For a 3 month position trade;
Charts project nothing, no chart pattern, indicators as expected for a dive. Fundies predict come back. Never should have dove in the first place. Ownership transactions show it may have been an industry reshuffle by institutional. Question is will they go after best of breed again after? Or will the money stay out of the industy for Q3?

Technical outlooks

Positive outlook
If support holds and you get a bottom bounce, the gap above to $40 should be hit easy. See strong resistance at 41.50, could consolidate or retrace from there. If consolidation, gap above pulling it higher to 43 gap fill. Double top, if reached, will be a major decision point again.

Negative outlook
If support fails, there are several other small support levels just below. Would consider 37.50 to 36.50 a support area. If broken gap to 36 will fill and momo could drive it down to fill gap below at 34.50 very easily. Next strong support 32.50 then 31.50.