The TradingEdge

[blacktruck]

Interesting data points on the TNA median line...

TNA has not been in existence long enough to have a hard core median area...consequently we have to realize minute changes in the envelope are just part of the package until this etf has enough time to trace out a true ml...


In looking at this first I want to relate its currrent status as a SPX proxy...

Daily proxy view




With above chart in mind cut the time frame into 60 minute bars and now view...(I will keep this live so I can ibox this message)



So it should be clear that PRESENTLY TNA makes for a very good proxy...thi sis not saying it will always be so...just that right now it is excellent as a proxy..

Since data is thin due to startup date now take a look at median line on a Weekly basis..



Now what strikes me here is the source of this fork is more or less the 50 % area of the C wave of the first move lower marked here..



Ideally I would want to see a longer term pitchfork cross two downwaves at the exact 50% area as notated in this example. This is based on the theory that price always seeks its median...




Now if I place all this info together I can utilize a fork which may defend better over a longer term BUT may be broken at top and bottom in the shorter term...





Now one might logically conclude that in order to pick off the eventual low the 50% area of the A wave should be built...




Now i will mark the message to see how price develops...