I agree with you and using the limited information provided in the 10q's combined with common sense I can make a case that we are going to see 4 straight quarters of sequential increases in revs and profits based on the contracts we already have. Any new contracts will result in even better results.
Looking at past q's, It looks like we normally get about 600 to 700K in revs based on the normal small contracts that aren't even pr'd.
I previously guestimated that 1/2 of the 1.3 mil and 25% of the 8 mil contracts were included in the last q's results.
They are paid on the large contracts as they reach benchmarks but it is standard business procedure to back load the contracts meaning the largest percentage of the contract payments are made upon completion. With that knowledge I suggest that we probably received less than half of the 1.3 mil contract in the last q. The completion of the contract should be included in the current q. We should also receive probably another 25% of the 8 mil contract in this q. Those two payments plus the usual 600 to 700K small orders should make the 3rd q better than the 2nd.
Maybe 750 to 800K for the 1.3 mil contract plus 2 mil for the 8 mil contract, plus lets say 700k in normal small contracts. That would mean revs of 3.5 mil and a net profit slightly better than the last q. Maybe substantially better because the portion of the 1.3 mil contract included in the last q paid for meeting benchmarks is probably only slightly more than expenses with the real gross profit coming on the large payment due at completion.
Then for the fourth q we will complete the 8 mil contract and receive 4 mil in payment with a better gross profit due to it being the q that the contract is completed. Combine that with the normal 700K in smaller contracts and you end up with revs of 4.7 mil and a larger profit than the 3rd q.
If my assumptions are correct we probably will make almost a full cent of profit in the 3rd q and in the 4th q make somewhere in the neighborhood of .0125 eps.
There are a lot of assumptions built into this analysis but I believe it is based on common sense and the way contracts are normally structured.
4 straight q's of sequential increases in revs and profits. That is with no new large contracts signed.
That would give us an annualized eps of about .03.
I think it is a steal at current prices and it could blow up substantially on any new contracts and even if we don't see them I think it should see steady gains from this point forward.
I almost took the shares that were offered at .125 yesterday but I have made 4 separate purchases over the last couple of weeks and I am overweighted here already.
I think an eps of over .03 and 4 straight q's of sequential increases in revs and profits makes this one eligible for a p/e of 20 meaning this is worth over .60 based on contracts in hand. Any additional contracts increases my estimates.
If I had more money, I would be buying up all of the cheap shares I could.
I already have 60,000 and for a small timer like me that is a lot!
