Read- Why it could be $5-$20?.....Let us address all the issues:
1) Is it Pure Pumping - some posters come and see a projection of $1, $5, $20 and they are thinking- what a pumping going on. True, I would think exactly the same thing, if I didn't know better. Very natural to think, it is impossible for a stock trading at a dime to go to $5 or $20. The reason they say that and can't comprehend is because this is iHub. Let us admit honestly, most folks who are looking at this stock are penny players and their long term is 3 days and their goal is 50-100% return in days. So they simply can't comprehend.
2) This is not a Penny stock - The other thing most folks here don't know that this was not a penny stock. This was supposed to be a high growth technology stock. I have bought this stock above $4+ few years ago. Things didn't turn out right, couldn't generate enough revenue and landed up with debt and the pps got crushed to pennyland. So this is not your typical penny scam. Don't compare with other penny stocks. Get over that. This is a diamond in the rough and let us talk about the diamond part.
3) This technology is super hot now- Years ago everyone wanted to do a VOIP biz and a lot of them did. In technology it's all about timing. Being ahead of time is same as being wrong, I teach my class. eBay purchase of Skype was considered the biggest blunder by CEO, Meg Whittman then. Time has changed. Internet in its second incarnation is becoming a part of everybodys life. And now video is the name of the game. No wonder Microsfot paid $8.5B for Skype. A superior technology is what counts not just the name. This company has a far superior technology. That bring us to the next issue about Fanning buying the debt.
4) Technology entrepreneurs and VC's go after superior technology and talents, not an idea. Those two things are the first thing they look for. That doesn't mean they don't fail. They are basic requirements for any kind of consideration, let alone investment. Fanning has enough technology experience himself or has buddies to evaluate PVSP technolgy to know its value. Fanning wouldn't care to get involved, let alone buy the debt, if he was not 100% certain of the superiority of the technology.
5) Why is suddenly VOIP so hot? Well basically companies have just about figured out how to monetize that using it in social media. Before they couldn't. Plus that is what the customers are looking for next. All 600M+ Facebook users will be happy to see the face of anyone they want who is online, while typing the msg. Wouldn't you? It's who has the video part figure out for millions of users and integrate with the social media will grab big market share and may the leadership as well. Get it.
6) Fanning and Parker are buddies. Parker introduced Zuckerberg to Thiel and got him the first $500K investment to Facebook and became the President for a while. Parker and Zuckerberg are buddies. You get the drift where I am going with it. Enough said!
7) Fanning wouldn't have bought the debt unless he knew exactly what to do with it. He had spent a lot of time and probably already has a full blown plan what to do with it. Read the above. We'll hear as the plan unfolds but I am afraid the pps will be 20X from here by that time.
8) What kills most penny stocks is dilution and that won't be happening here. The CEO, Fanning and gang can financially back it knowing that dilution will kill the pps. Their goal is to increase the pps at this point. You say Why? Well are they not thinking that Skype got sold for $8.5B. How the hell will they think big money if the market cap is only $2M. Their first goal is to take it to $200-$500M market cap to be able to talk big. So if I am Fanning my goal is to increase the pps ASAP. Otherwise, if he has to- What will he say Zuckerberg like. What? My company is trading and the market cap is $2M. No! get it. While on the subject, from the trading it doesn't look like a 20M OS stock. More like a 50M OS. So we need to find that. If ther is any small dilution, then where is it coming from. I plan to read the previous filings over the weekend.
9) Will those debt be converted to shares? Sure enough but not now. When the debt is paid off (2013-2015) they will convert them to preferred shares. But that will be a part of the existing OS at that time. The current share holders will be diluted but by that time the company will be worth a lot more. May be $1B, hard to predict now. Remember the CEO and others aho are buying shares or holding shares are the same "common" shares as yours and mine. Any dilution will have the same effect on their shares as it will have on ours. See the filings. Just sayin.
10) The CEO and others are buying at $0.10 and $0.20 and have waarants at $2, $3 and more. If they are buying they want 50X-100X return or they won't be doing so. That is what angel investors do. Not that they always make that much but that is the expectation when they go in. I should know!
11) Since, my assumption is there is no dilution going on, the stock will trade purely technically,i.e; 2 step forward and one step backward until it reaches the right valuation. Technically once it goes above the MA(200) @ $0.15 it will move up much faster to take its all time high. There will be pull backs along the way and there will plenty of entry and exit points for all to make a buck or two. So no need to take a loss here at anytime.
12) There will be wild fluctaution as long as the pps is below $1 because of volatility by penny traders. As the pps goes higher (>$1, $2, $3) the stock will be held by more serious investors whose short term is more than one month, unlike the long term for penny traders is 3 days.
13) One poster made a good comparison with SIRI and that is a good example except SIRI's biz model was new and no one knew whether folks will be willing to pay for listening to radio, so it took time. Here the valuation is already established by precedence - Miscrosoft paid $8.5B to Skype. So we have a baseline to start with. For heaven shake we are now at $2M market cap. So why even talk.
14) This will move much faster than SIRI because the OS is too small and the valuation has a baseline to compare. In essence it is a catch up game.
15) I think we'll take out the all time high in few months. I give 90 days to get to $5. No need to talk about that as I'll be only one from now to be still here at that time. Most (read all) will be gone by the time it hit $1-$2.
I have made an effort explain what I could in all honesty with no agenda what-so-ever. I am long and plan to stay long for long long time unless I see things any different to change my opinion.
All the best.
P.S: Ignore the spelling and errors. I still type using one finger and have to look at the keyboard.
Experience is the most powerful tool in the world !
