Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

[jackhartmann]

Portfolio up 4.3%, Dow up 1.38%, Nasdaq up 3.19%, S&P500 up 1.76%, J-Blimps up 4.4%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy up 4.4%, Gorilla Hunters up 8.0%, Gilder2001 up 5.4%, OC-192 up 5.4%.

NYSE Volume: 1,120 mln...Adv: 1957...Dec: 1102
Up Volume 869.99 Down Volume 241.86
New Highs 113 New Lows 94

Nasdaq Volume: 1,772 mln...Adv: 2197...Dec: 1523 Up on average volume.
Up Volume 1261.51 Down Volume 477.75
New Highs 32 New Lows 283 Huge six days

Put/Call ratio 0.56 (Range 0.48 to 0.52) Very Bearish to Bullish in a day. Weeeee!
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.

VIX 33.39 down.
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.

April natural gas $5.06 per million British thermal units. Up 3 cents.

Sector Watch

Breakout of the day
Biotechs ($BTK) 499.48 +31.43 +6.72% Collapse on Friday and green today.

Collapse of the day
Insurance ($IUX) 693.42 -6.91 -0.99%

QQQ at $43 Chart: Six day base. Blocks: 564/565 neg for 3 days. Volume%: 61

One stock

Lucent Tech (LU) Up 19.81%: Awarded 3-yr, $5 bln contract by Verizon Wireless to supply third-generation (3G) high-speed mobile network infrastructure. Deal positions Lucent to become the largest supplier of 3G equipment to Verizon Wireless. "Verizon Wireless spokesman Jim Gerace declined to identify other suppliers that may have sought the contract. The company also buys network equipment from Nortel Networks Corp. and Motorola Inc., he said. Verizon buys about two-thirds of its wireless-network equipment from Lucent, Gerace said." Verizon will use the equipment, designed around a wireless transmission standard called CDMA 2000, to help develop its next-generation wireless technologies.
These networks require high-speed data-networking systems to support mobile Internet sessions.
Note: A baby bell giving money to a baby bell spin off. At least VZ is spending the money. LU customers will do well. Every press release pertaining to 3G wireless now contain the CDMA2000 solution in it so QCOM is moving now. Even if they gave VZ a great deal, the massive signing helps enormously: erasing perception they are falling farther behind rivals, capturing the #1 buyer as the moment. NT has to be stinging as it probablt was competing against LU for the deal. LU was down to 1x sales. $35 Billion market cap and $35 Billion sales. This deal and the Sprint wireless deal are my triggers to dip into a wireless stock.


Portfolio Watch

<B> EVERY SINGLE STOCK WAS GREEN!

A record day in history. Let us observe this event by eating some green jello. (It was leftover from St. Pats and the wife made the Thai too hot tonight.)

Palm Inc (PALM) up 5.53% Sees no merit to lawsuit filed March 14 by NCR Corp against Palm and Handspring (HAND). The NCR suit alleges that handheld computers made by the companies infringe two NCR-owned patents for a type of "portable personal" terminal.
Note: Probably will sell this week

Corning Inc (GLW) Up 8.71% Guides down outlook for 2001 pro forma earnings from previously stated guidance of $1.40-$1.43 per share to $1.20-$1.30 per share. Company maintaining Q1 forecast of $0.28-$0.31 a share, which compares to $0.23 Q1 of last yr. New forecasts based on recent customer feedback which indicates that a meaningful recovery of spending by telecom customers will occur much more slowly than company had previously anticipated. Company sees worldwide fiber market growth of 20% this yr and worldwide photonic components market growth of 10%-30% in 2001.
Note: Down 5% premarket on the news. News not so bad as warnings go. Now trading at its growth rate. Such a deal.

Pharmacia (PHA) Study results demonstrate that elderly hypertensive osteoarthritis patients taking Vioxx experienced a statistically significant increase (approximately 3 mm Hg) in mean systolic blood pressure compared with those taking Celebrex. PHA and Pfizer co-market Celebrex. Vioxx is a Merck (MRK) product
Note: News that I can’t figure out.

Rambus (RMBS) up 20.57% J.P. Morgan H&Q analyst Eric Chen wrote in a research note that even excluding royalties related to the lawsuit, Rambus is trading at a discount to its expected revenue growth in calendar 2001 and 2002. (J.P. Morgan has done underwriting for Rambus.)

Watch List things to watch but not trade

PSINet (PSIX) down 73.91% Predicts that it is likely that the company's common will have no value, and the indebtedness of the company will be worth significantly less than face value
Note: Predicted to go under and it nearly is done.

Semitool (SMTL) Company reaffirms guidance for the 2nd qtr issued on January 29. However, SMTL warns that the current sharp downturn in the semiconductor industry is affecting order rates and will likely diminish earnings and revenue in the 2nd-half of fiscal year 2001.
Note: Chip equipment makers still holding strong.

Goldman Sachs Analyst, Laura Conigliaro making sizable cuts to revenue and earnings forecasts for the enterprise server and storage companies, including BRCD, EMC, HWP, IBM, NTAP and SUNW. Cuts based on continued slowing in the U.S. and belief that this will spread to Asia and Europe. Estimates have gone to the low end of the range of expectations or below it in some instances, and are well below consensus forecasts. In the U.S. the slowing has spread to virtually all industries, while anecdotal evidence is beginning to suggest that the slowing is also spreading to parts of Asia and Europe.
Note: She been pounding the stocks above so news is not really news.

Intel (INTC) USB Piper Jaffray analyst Ashok Kumar fears that Intel shares could retest the valuation troughs of 1998 (20x TTM P/E). This suggests a price in the high teens. Analyst does not expect a sustainable cyclical recovery for the PC market until the 2nd-half of 2002.
Note: Kumar been wrong enough times.

Seitel (SEI) Suffering amid rumors that the quarter could come in light. SEI has begun to recover off its lows since CNBC reported that company knows of no reason for decline in stock. SEI is a provider of seismic data and geophysical services to the petroleum industry.
Note: A screen winner. No DD yet on it.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) Company warns for Q3; sees revenues 8-10% below the $570-$580 mln guidance and EPS excluding non-recurring charges is expected to be below prior $0.58 guidance; current consensus EPS estimate is $0.51. "Business fundamentals for the semiconductor industry have continued to deteriorate throughout the quarter," stated Ken Schroeder, president and CEO
Note: Semis should be only 5% of your holdings.

EXFO (EXFO) Reports Q2 earnings of $0.14 a share, $0.04 better than the Zacks consensus of $0.10, vs year-ago earnings of $0.06; revenues rose 108.3% to $36.29 mln from a year-ago of $17.42 mln. Company raises FY01 revenue guidance to between $150 and $165 mln, and EPS has been increased to between $0.40 and $0.50 (consensus is $0.45).
Note: A good optical report. Will help the sector.

Solectron (SLR) Reports Q2 earnings of $0.30 a share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.29, vs year-ago earnings of $0.19; revenues rose 85.5% to $5.42 bln from a year-ago of $2.92 bln; Company lowers guidance; sees Q3 sales of $4.1 to $4.5 bln, diluted cash EPS of 12 cents to 16 cents, and GAAP EPS of 2 cents to 6 cents. Current consensus estimate for Q3 is $0.31 on revenues of $5.57 bln
Company expects to reduce its work force by about 8,200 (about 10%) and take a charge of $300 to $400 mln in Q3

MiniMed (MNMD) In their afternoon call, Prudential reiterates STRONG BUY rating and price target of $55 after competitor, Disetronic, issues "Dear Patient" letter today related to potential leakage in pump housing; several pump wearers reported hypoglycemic events after swimming or bathing; news could shift market share to MNMD.
Note: It could raise fears that MNMD is next too.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) had to shut down a manufacturing plant near San Francisco for about two hours on Monday during the latest rolling blackouts across California.
The plant houses several different business and manufacturing units, but was running again after the power outage. A sales and engineering facility in San Diego where the firm develops servers also temporarily lost power during the blackouts.
Note: CPN and others selling power to CA look better all the time.

The US faces a severe energy crisis and needs a new strategy to prevent supply falling far behind demand, Spencer Abraham, the US energy secretary, said on Monday. The energy sector in the US, the world's largest importer and consumer of oil, is "strained to capacity" and confronting its most serious shortages since the Arab oil embargo and petrol queues of the 1970s, he said. Mr Abraham used a speech to the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington to set out for the first time publicly the magnitude of the crisis the Bush administration believes it faces and the supply-oriented strategy it intends to adopt. A task force, chaired by Dick Cheney, vice-president, is to have the new policy ready in the next few weeks.
Attacking the Clinton government for taxing demand and neglecting supply, Mr Abraham said the administration would announce a strategy to address "antiquated" infrastructure, rising demand and falling supplies. "Our last recessions were all tied to energy crises," he said. There was "strong evidence" shortages and higher prices were hurting US business. While he disagreed with last weekend's decision by the Opec oil producers' cartel to cut production in a bid to boost prices, he said it showed the importance of increasing domestic production. On current trends the US would soon be importing nearly two-thirds of the oil it consumes. Mr Abraham said all energy sources would receive support, though he raised doubts that many of the tax incentives and subsidies proposed by the industry would receive administration backing.
Instead he stressed broad regulatory reform rather than financial support. The number of refineries had halved since 1980, he said. When President Bill Clinton last year released oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to damp prices, it had to be sent overseas for refining. The US will need 65 new power plants a year to keep up with electricity demand. "This could be a conservative estimate," Mr Abraham said. He said drilling for oil on federal lands was restricted or forbidden. The administration is proposing to open a portion of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling. The US will need massive construction of pipelines and transmission lines, costing $120bn-$150bn (£83bn-£104bn), he said. http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3VSGRJIKC&live=true&t...
Note: Hmmm, The steel industry may get a lot of business as infrastrucure may accelerate.

Japanese government bond futures surged to a record high after the central bank's decision effectively to return to zero interest rates.
Note: More in previous post. A good step for them.

Trim Tabs said stock market liquidity dropped dramatically over the five days ended last Thursday. Large outflows from U.S. equity funds and $2.8 billion in new offerings drained cash from the market, the fund flow tracker said
Note: Yawn, no surprise

Quote of the Day

"Whether it was short-covering, an oversold bounce or a Greenspan-induced rally, it's hard to read too much into Monday's price action," remarked Bryan Piskorowski, market analyst at Prudential Securities.
"The debate rages on over whether we'll get a 50- or 75-basis-point move. Either way, the market's bottoming process will take place in its own right. There is no magic number from the Fed [that'll be a quick fix for stocks]," he concluded.
Note: I think we will rally harder with a 50 basis point cut as it will signal the economy is not in desperate shape.

Summary

Yep, when the PC ratio and the VIX both hit targets level, we can get a bounce toward the green as sure as me making my point on the dice table.

The trouble is that we are up on low volume. Some short covering. Apparently some on margin threw in the towel early and miss the whole thing.

Had to counsel a woman who lost 70% of her retirement by jumping in techs in 1999. She was up 25% at one time, but never once took profits. Now she want to go back in bonds. She doubled her money in CSCO only to see it get halved.

Jack