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Re: alfaspider post# 437

Monday, 11/08/2010 1:37:45 AM

Monday, November 08, 2010 1:37:45 AM

Post# of 485
DEAR is a fairly low volume stock. Technically it is approaching an oversold position. RSI has a way to go, but the stochastic is near bottom. Since this has a fundamental value much higher than the PPS, with decent earnings and a low float, I expect a bounce. Probably a couple weeks out. DEAR has always had the benefit - and drawback - of being low volume, so it doesn't take much to move it up - nor does it take much to drop it when people decide to bank. I think we are in a 1.50 - 2.25 range unless/until good news or record earnings hit. Could be wrong... I have a long position with an average of 1.80 right now...holding for 3+ regardless of how long it takes.

I have looked at GRAN. Been recommended to me a couple times. Other than the huge double pop early this year, I don't see much. It is not technically oversold, so no bounce. The technicals in general are nothing outstanding one way or the other. I know NOTHING about the company from a fundamental standpoint, so they may be on the verge of something huge that I am just missing. My bigger concern is liquidity. I am not sure the size positions you take, but I try to never take positions that exceed 10% of the average daily trading volume for the last 30 days. DEAR is on the verge of that. GRAN is much lower AVERAGE volume (except for the time period earlier in the year when it pop'd). If you are taking a smaller position and can afford to wait, I see no reason why it would not, at some point, pop. You may be holding 3+ months though. Or you can take a longer position and be aware that you may end up selling in steps over several days.

Honestly though, the way it has been trading in the last 30 days, if you are taking a $1000 position and flipping it every couple days you can do well. Not really my game. DEAR has much more liquidity and volatility. Better for flipping, also better technical buy right now for a hold.

Just my thoughts...

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