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Alias Born | 10/05/2010 |
Wednesday, October 06, 2010 8:21:41 PM
Looking at the numbers for the coming earnings call im staying a bit conservative. Assuming 25 to 26m in revenues I think .04 earnings is likely. Analyst range is .02 to.05 with .03 being concensus. I basically used the same ratios as last quarters report. I backed out the facilities charge though.
Seems to me the hardest part on forecasting earnings (other than it is just guessing anyway) is the taxes.
In Q1 they recorded a tax benefit of 1,079,108.
In Q2 they recorded a tax expense of (1,218,234).
Given the loss and profits of Q1 and Q2 respectively the taxes basically are a wash for the first 1/2 of the year which is good.
For a company with roughly 24m shares outstanding, tax swings like shown above wreak havoc with the bottom line; I assumed a 52% tax obligation in my numbers as management implied.
I think it is probably better to focus on the revenue growth ICLK has and just keep an eye out for improved efficiency than to try and forecast an EPS right now. Analysts get paid to do that, and they arent verry good at it either. lol
Staying long
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