Update to StormKing Q3 Revenue projections
This post updates my revenue projections for the 3rd quarter ending September 30, 2010. The 9/20/10 posting was based on 118 apps. Now that we have 137, I have calculated an update to the numbers:
Previously posted ...
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Revenue increases have continued through the first two months of the 3rd Quarter with weekly revenues as follows: Week ended August 1, 2010 - $4,355; August 8 - $4,514; August 15 - $5,422; August 22 - $6,618; August 29 - $8,149 for a monthly total of $29,058, a 22% improvement over July revenues which were $23,896.
StormKing Comment: This is THE SINGLE biggest paragraph of the entire PR and validated what I have been projecting (and mayhap made it easier to calculate than using my laborious methods). First, they did better in July than I expected. I had conservatively assumed $18,000 in my projections, but here they go and tell us (transparency folks!) it was $23,986. For August, When the big iPad/Universal App explosion occurred, we saw enormous leaps. Remember, we didn’t get the big increase in apps until we had 6 apps released on August 12, 13 apps on August 17th, and 15 apps released on August 25th. The August 25th releases had key titles in there like Mindfulness, Kaballah Meditation, and a significant number of our hugely popular Yoga apps. So no surprise that we had our biggest week yet at the end of August.
However, how the PR was worded confused me. What does week ended August 1 mean? Is that Monday, July 26 thru Sunday, August 1? If so the Week ended August 29th is August 23-29. Which leaves me confused that the PR total number for August-= the sum of the numbers provided (i.e. $4,355+$4,514+$5,422+,$6618+$8,149 = $29,058). But what does that mean for Aug 30, 31? I just don’t know for sure! But, for now, I gotta take them literally that September numbers will include Aug 30,31 since that is probably how they run their numbers, on a weekly Mon-Sun period.
So, for the sake of projections, I will assume the Week ended Aug 29th, earned us a whopping $8,149. And will include Aug 30, 31 into September.
These numbers provided for revenues (yes, major transparency from the company thank you!) bode incredibly well for September as those Yoga apps have continued to sell exceptionally well. Just basing September revs on that last burst in August plus assuming no additional apps added in September (which we know we have 33 already), we would have a projected weekly breakdown like this (assume it takes 7 days to make that $8,149):
Aug 30-Sept 5: $8149
Sep6-12: $8149
Sep 13-19: $8149
Sep 20-25: $8149
Sep 26-30: $6984
This nets us $39,580 for Aug 30- September 30. All told, for Q3 we have $23,986 (July) + $29,058 (August) + $39,580 (Sep) = $92,624, which is about a +66% sequential increase from Q2.
However,lets now crudely calculate our revenues for September upon including the current 33 apps released (and we are ignoring iPhone and other mobile devices yet again). If 85 apps = $8,149 per week, then 118 apps, upon ratioing it, gives us $11,312 per 7 days. Let us also account, roughly again, for when apps were released in September.
Aug 29-Sept 5: $4,657 (we added 8 apps on Sept 3)
Sept 6-12: $9,656 (we added 9 apps on Sept 7th)
Sept 12-18: $10,464 (we added 10 apps on 9/14 and 6 on 9/16)
Sept 19-25: $11,311 (we assume 118 apps through the end of month)
Sept 26-30: $8,080 (5 days in Week)
This nets us $47,015 for Aug 30-September 30 (without any more apps added through the end of the month!), which for Q3 Total is $23,986 (July)+ $29,058 (August)+ $44,168 (Sept) = $97212, which is about a +76% sequential increase from Q2.
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Now, that last portion, updated to account for 51 apps now released through September 25, 2010:
Aug 29-Sept 5: $4,657 (we added 8 apps on Sept 3)
Sept 6-12: $9,656 (we added 9 apps on Sept 7h)
Sept 12-18: $10,464 (we added 10 apps on 9/14 and 6 on 9/16)
Sept 19-25: $12,858 (we added 18 apps on 9/20 and 1 on 9/21)
Sept 26-30: $9,380 (5 days in Week)
With this update to 137 apps, this nets i-Mobilize $47,015 for Aug 30-September 30 (without any more apps added last 5 days of the month!), which for Q3 Total is $23,986 (July)+ $29,058 (August)+ $47,015 (Sept) = $100,059, which is about a +80% "sequential" increase from Q2.
Again, I acknowledge this is crude since we dont know how much is iphone vs. iPad or what Blackberry, Android, and other revenue producing efforts are bringing in, but it does give some estimation beyond mere guesswork (IMO).
StormKing
