Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:32:44 PM
Re: S&P500 - Coming Under Technical Pressure:
Looking at the big technical picture (10-year, weekly chart below), the benchmark seems to have reached a point of peak performance over the past months.
While the high achieved in mid-April 2010 brought the index to its ultimate 61.8$ Fibo level, the recent rally attempts seems to be falling short of the same stamina. Instead, the 200 weekly EMA seems to be the limiting factor at this point, causing the recent high to carve out a lower high. Taking the lower volume indicator in concert with this weakening picture, there may be cause for concern as to whether the rally can sustain itself any higher, especially if volume continues to wane.
The second chart below points to a technical hurdle overhead, which seems to provide an added graphic representation of this weakening discussed above.
The third chart only adds to the technical picture.
Overall, I believe that unless volume picks up, we are likely to face significant resistance, at best, or a resumption of prior decline.
Furthermore, I believe that, although the recent rally over the past months were significant and impressive, the predominent trend remains bearish.
- Dalcindo
S&P500 - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
SPY - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
Looking at the big technical picture (10-year, weekly chart below), the benchmark seems to have reached a point of peak performance over the past months.
While the high achieved in mid-April 2010 brought the index to its ultimate 61.8$ Fibo level, the recent rally attempts seems to be falling short of the same stamina. Instead, the 200 weekly EMA seems to be the limiting factor at this point, causing the recent high to carve out a lower high. Taking the lower volume indicator in concert with this weakening picture, there may be cause for concern as to whether the rally can sustain itself any higher, especially if volume continues to wane.
The second chart below points to a technical hurdle overhead, which seems to provide an added graphic representation of this weakening discussed above.
The third chart only adds to the technical picture.
Overall, I believe that unless volume picks up, we are likely to face significant resistance, at best, or a resumption of prior decline.
Furthermore, I believe that, although the recent rally over the past months were significant and impressive, the predominent trend remains bearish.
- Dalcindo
S&P500 - 10-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
SPY - 5-Year, WEEKLY Chart:
- Dalcindo
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