Sunday, August 01, 2010 10:35:50 PM
IMO, there is zero doubt that we are going to break out if we get the news. The question is, will it be tomorrow or later in the week. The Cup and Handle pattern is clearly formed. The 5-day and 20-day EMAs have crossed above the 50-day. The Bollinger Bands are definitely making room for the pop, and the pps is still in the upper portion, and even though it isn't technically hugging the upper band, it is definitely close enough for my blood. The RSI is rising after a one day dip, MACD it still rising, though the Histogram is retracting slightly. IMO, it is too early to tell if the MACD Hist is a true first sign of divergence. I suspect not. A/D OBV and MFI are all high, but almost too high (they will not hold without news). I would prefer to see the Stochastics %K cross above the %D, but it is close. ADX is heading the wrong direction, but is still not in trouble, but IMO, without news, the sellers will quickly overtake the buyers, and Williams %R is in positive territory but not overly strong.
All things considered, if this was a normal week, I would be very encouraged about where the week will go. However, this is NOT a normal week. WE NEED AND EXPECT NEWS. And IMO, without it, by Tuesday we will see a sell off again as people take profits.
I think we have a chance of testing .04, but resistance has been fierce at that price, and we will need more than rumors and a nice Q&A to generate the momentum necessary to break through. If we get news, all doubt will be settled. If we do not, then, IMO, we will bounce off the .04 ceiling again and be looking at the possibility of dropping to support at .023 if the disappointment becomes an epidemic.
The NEWS is the KEY.
My money is on NEWS tomorrow (though I must admit I would rather see FFGO pop first, so I can bring the profits home to by more MDMN, CDCH, and NPER)
With NEWS, IMO, .04 will be HISTORY, look out .15 MINIMUM, the first day.
JMHO of course. Do your own DD before making any trading decisions regarding these stocks.
The problem with making exceptions to the rule is that eventually the rule becomes the exception. – roundmot
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