Monday, July 12, 2010 9:26:29 PM
DD on REAL/SPZR
**I am writing this post to help serve as a centralized hub for all things REAL & SPZR, to collect all the DD people have done and hopefully serve as a launching board for investors to start their own DD. I will do my best to provide links so you can follow where the research is coming from and I have also tried to provide some screenshots for additional information as well. As the REAL & SPZR story unfold I will continue to update this post. Please let me know either if you see any mistakes or you believe I've left anything important off. As always this is not meant to supplant your own DD, only complement it. Be aware that mixed in with facts here there is speculation and I am not a financial adviser. Below, I do my best to spell out both the REAL & SPZR stories as I currently understand them.
AS M&A PICKS UP IN OTC LAND, TWO SHELLS FOR A SHELL PLAYERS WATCHLIST
REAL(OTC:REAL) & SPZR (OTC:SPZR) are two empty shells that contain perfect parameters for empty shell runners. A low PPS, great SS, strong management and currently reporting on the OTCQB, make them both very attractive at these levels. I've searched long and hard through hundreds of empty shell picks and I wanted to highlight these two because I feel they have potential as R/M runners. As M&A activity picks up, people will be looking for low SS shells to invest in, these are two I think that will find themselves onto people's lists.
Why a dual DD post? Two words, common management. In the midst of the worst economic downturn and environment for M&A activity in a long time, management that now represents REAL & SPZR put together one of the most unsung, yet successful R/M's of the year. They engineered the R/M of Golf Trust of America into (AMEX:PTX) Pernix Therapeutics. Part of the reason this flew under the radar IMO, was the face that up until now they have been relatively unknown penny shell players. I have been watching both of these stocks for quite some time, but the reason I am featuring them now is I believe they are pretty close to hitting a PPS bottom. I see much more upside potential than downside. From here on out, I will be watching closely for changes in their trading activity and filings as hints to potential R/M.
Sadly, unlike many of my other comprehensive DD posts, this one won't be as flashy, with graphics and oohh, ahhh..things LOL, this will just be the bread and butter, the flash will be once/if these two have their R/M's. Until then, enjoy digging through the details.
WHO IS THIS COMMON MANAGEMENT?
The Pearce/Gottlieb Tag Team. The main players here are Michael Pearce & Jay Gottlieb with several supporting players. Not among the most well-known shell players, because they are relatively new to the shell scene and only have recently begun to gain some attention. Both of them are growing into what I believe are skilled shell players, finding value in companies, taking control of them, cleaning up their books and making them into ideal R/M candidates. Here are their bios:
Michael Pearce
http://people.forbes.com/profile/michael-c-pearce/9194
Jay Gottlieb
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=jay+gottlieb+forbes
A BRIEF SYNOPSIS of GTA/PTX REVERSE MERGER
To be fair GTA had a much, much larger asset base and cash reserve compared to REAL or SPZR, which also helps explain why it traded in the multi-dollar level pre-R/M. Leading up to the R/M, GTA moved from ~$1.75 to nearly $4.75, a move of +271%. You can imagine if they are able to clean up REAL and SPZR, as they have been, at the penny level (not the dollar level), what the potential may be. If Gottlieb, Pearce and team manage to connect either REAL or SPZR with big-time players, not hard to see how these could be real shell movers.
About Pernix Therapeutics (AMEX:PTX):
Screenshot:
http://pernixtx.com
Timeline of GTA/PTX merger
November 15, 2006 - Gottlieb begins to take ownership stake November 15, 2006.
January 9, 2007 - Michael Pearce comes in as consultant
July 16, 2007 - Disposition of Assets
August 8, 2007 - Company announces should start to actively search for other business opportunity
November 2007 - Michael Pearce becomes CEO/Chairman of the Board
April 16, 2008 - Change of Accountants
October 8, 2008 - Litigation Settlement
January 29, 2009 - Completion of Disposition of Assets
October 7, 2009 - Plan of Merger with Pernix Therapeutics
March 8, 2010 - Name Change from Golf Trust of America, Inc. to Pernix Therapeutics. R/S of 2:1. New O/S: 24,658,594
March 24, 2010 - Pernix announces CEDAX acquisition
May 19, 2010 - Pernix announces stock repurchase authorization
June 3, 2010 - PTX begins trading on AMEX.
Reverse Splits are seen as bad signs by some, but smart shell traders know that this is not always the case especially when you are deaing with stocks that will end up trading on the big boards. That was the case with GTA, the R/S was minimal at 2:1 to bring O/S to ~24,000,000, the company uplisted to AMEX and to top it off, Michael Pearce and management also announced a stock repurchase authorization, potentially bringing the float down even further.
Trading Activity
In addition to looking at a timeline of events to better establish what types of steps a management team takes to get a shell ready for R/M I also look at trading activity. In the case of GTA, as you can see in the chart posted below, there is a steep drop off in shares traded starting in early 2009, all the way up until fall 2009, when the merger was announced. The PPS also shows strong gains during this time. While patterns don't always play out the same, it is a clue that can be used, especially when dealing with similar management teams.
With that brief background of the GTA/PTX merger, we will now look at REAL & SPZR, two additional shell candidates that Gottlieb, Pearce and other revolving players have under their belt. And just as with the GTA to PTX timeline many of the main stumbling blocks have been taken care of. With both SPZR and REAL the management team has taken a significant equity stake, they have disposed of their assets, have been cleaning up their liabilities and like GTA have recently switched accountants. An advantage for both SPZR & REAL, their O/S counts are significantly less than that of GTA prior to R/M, making an R/S less likely. Based on the clean up they have already done, if they have candidates to merge in I would expect the final steps of the process would not take long.
REAL - Reliability, Inc.
About:
Share Structure:
OTCQB
A/S: 20,000,000
O/S: 9.630,000
Estimated Float: (Based on last reported insider and institutional holdings) 4,936,745
There are two things I like. First with the SS there is an incredibly low O/S. Taken in combination with a >50% equity ownership by Gottlieb and team, this makes an R/S much less likely. Second, the current reporting status often provides more impetus to get a deal done sooner rather than later. As current reporting requires more cash to continue filings, current reporting shells can often R/M in a more timely manner as there is a financial incentive to wrap things up quickly.
Management Acquisition of Shares:
Along with being named directors management came in buying 3,294,035 shares to gain control of greater than 50% of the O/S. It should also be noted that they bought in at .012/shr. With the price standing at .015, I think .012 remains a solid base for more movement up here. Historically, Gottlieb and team first take a sizable equity stake and then take control of the shell.
Change of Control:
Trading Activity:
Since 2009, the shares traded has significantly decreased with shares entering seemingly tighter hands. In the last month, the ask on the L2 has not dropped below .025, despite a few 1000 share buys at the bid.
The Daily Chart shows continued accumulation for the last few months.
The Weekly Chart shows how dramatically the trading decreased after the change of control in spring 2009. It appears shares have found their way into stronger hands.
Net Loss Carryforwards:
Typically companies are able to use ~8% of total NOL for tax writeoffs, although it can vary significantly from case to case.
Stock Options:
That means management no longer has to deal with the possibility of additional options which can often complicate the R/M process for shell owners.
Shareholders of Record:
This number also helps explain why the trading has been quite tight, the number of shareholders of record has been tightening up.
SPZR - Spatializer Audio Laboratories, Inc.
About:
Share Structure:
OTCQB
A/S: 300,000,000
O/S: 6,500,000
Estimated Float: (Based on last reported insider and institutional holdings) 4,489,689
Again, much like REAL, two things to like here, a similar set-up, a low SS and also a current reporting status.
Management Acquisition of Shares:
Change of Control:
Net-Loss Carryforwards:
Despite it's substantial amount, the $1,000,000 limitation, along with an earlier expiration date (2015) makes it less attractive than REAL's IMO.
Asset Distribution:
Management has shown regard for current shareholders with SPZR as well as with GTA. They could have just R/S'd to bring the SS down to where they wanted it and kept the assets, but they first distributed assets in form of dividend to current shareholders. They then proceeded to do a 10:1 R/S to bring the O/S down under 10,000,000 which allowed them to gain majority equity control. Due to REAL's already low O/S, it seems this was not necessary in that case.
Trading Activity:
This stock seems much more volatile play than REAL, due to what I believe is a larger number of holders.
The Daily Chart shows some accumulation over the last few months.
The volatility can be seen more clearly in the weekly.
I believe this increased volatility can be somewhat explained by the larger number of holders as spelled out in the last 10-K:
ANY CONCERNS?
The primary concern with REAL & SPZR are their short-term cash issues, I will be looking to their upcoming filings for news on whether they are able to resolve these issues. If they are, this will bode well for their future potential. Either way, these are currently trading near rock-bottom pricing at the moment.
If my bet was on which stock would have an R/M first, I would bet on REAL, but either way, this is all conjecture and speculation. In the end, I decided to DD REAL & SPZR because of management's recent success with the last shell they held, in combination with a very attractive SS, their current reporting status and recent accumulation in the last few months. While some shell players may decide they won't take a position right away, I believe, at the very least, they are very attractive shell's to have on a watchlist.
**I am writing this post to help serve as a centralized hub for all things REAL & SPZR, to collect all the DD people have done and hopefully serve as a launching board for investors to start their own DD. I will do my best to provide links so you can follow where the research is coming from and I have also tried to provide some screenshots for additional information as well. As the REAL & SPZR story unfold I will continue to update this post. Please let me know either if you see any mistakes or you believe I've left anything important off. As always this is not meant to supplant your own DD, only complement it. Be aware that mixed in with facts here there is speculation and I am not a financial adviser. Below, I do my best to spell out both the REAL & SPZR stories as I currently understand them.
AS M&A PICKS UP IN OTC LAND, TWO SHELLS FOR A SHELL PLAYERS WATCHLIST
REAL(OTC:REAL) & SPZR (OTC:SPZR) are two empty shells that contain perfect parameters for empty shell runners. A low PPS, great SS, strong management and currently reporting on the OTCQB, make them both very attractive at these levels. I've searched long and hard through hundreds of empty shell picks and I wanted to highlight these two because I feel they have potential as R/M runners. As M&A activity picks up, people will be looking for low SS shells to invest in, these are two I think that will find themselves onto people's lists.
Why a dual DD post? Two words, common management. In the midst of the worst economic downturn and environment for M&A activity in a long time, management that now represents REAL & SPZR put together one of the most unsung, yet successful R/M's of the year. They engineered the R/M of Golf Trust of America into (AMEX:PTX) Pernix Therapeutics. Part of the reason this flew under the radar IMO, was the face that up until now they have been relatively unknown penny shell players. I have been watching both of these stocks for quite some time, but the reason I am featuring them now is I believe they are pretty close to hitting a PPS bottom. I see much more upside potential than downside. From here on out, I will be watching closely for changes in their trading activity and filings as hints to potential R/M.
Sadly, unlike many of my other comprehensive DD posts, this one won't be as flashy, with graphics and oohh, ahhh..things LOL, this will just be the bread and butter, the flash will be once/if these two have their R/M's. Until then, enjoy digging through the details.
WHO IS THIS COMMON MANAGEMENT?
The Pearce/Gottlieb Tag Team. The main players here are Michael Pearce & Jay Gottlieb with several supporting players. Not among the most well-known shell players, because they are relatively new to the shell scene and only have recently begun to gain some attention. Both of them are growing into what I believe are skilled shell players, finding value in companies, taking control of them, cleaning up their books and making them into ideal R/M candidates. Here are their bios:
Michael Pearce
http://people.forbes.com/profile/michael-c-pearce/9194
Jay Gottlieb
http://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=jay+gottlieb+forbes
A BRIEF SYNOPSIS of GTA/PTX REVERSE MERGER
To be fair GTA had a much, much larger asset base and cash reserve compared to REAL or SPZR, which also helps explain why it traded in the multi-dollar level pre-R/M. Leading up to the R/M, GTA moved from ~$1.75 to nearly $4.75, a move of +271%. You can imagine if they are able to clean up REAL and SPZR, as they have been, at the penny level (not the dollar level), what the potential may be. If Gottlieb, Pearce and team manage to connect either REAL or SPZR with big-time players, not hard to see how these could be real shell movers.
About Pernix Therapeutics (AMEX:PTX):
Screenshot:
http://pernixtx.com
Timeline of GTA/PTX merger
November 15, 2006 - Gottlieb begins to take ownership stake November 15, 2006.
January 9, 2007 - Michael Pearce comes in as consultant
July 16, 2007 - Disposition of Assets
August 8, 2007 - Company announces should start to actively search for other business opportunity
November 2007 - Michael Pearce becomes CEO/Chairman of the Board
April 16, 2008 - Change of Accountants
October 8, 2008 - Litigation Settlement
January 29, 2009 - Completion of Disposition of Assets
October 7, 2009 - Plan of Merger with Pernix Therapeutics
March 8, 2010 - Name Change from Golf Trust of America, Inc. to Pernix Therapeutics. R/S of 2:1. New O/S: 24,658,594
March 24, 2010 - Pernix announces CEDAX acquisition
May 19, 2010 - Pernix announces stock repurchase authorization
June 3, 2010 - PTX begins trading on AMEX.
Reverse Splits are seen as bad signs by some, but smart shell traders know that this is not always the case especially when you are deaing with stocks that will end up trading on the big boards. That was the case with GTA, the R/S was minimal at 2:1 to bring O/S to ~24,000,000, the company uplisted to AMEX and to top it off, Michael Pearce and management also announced a stock repurchase authorization, potentially bringing the float down even further.
Trading Activity
In addition to looking at a timeline of events to better establish what types of steps a management team takes to get a shell ready for R/M I also look at trading activity. In the case of GTA, as you can see in the chart posted below, there is a steep drop off in shares traded starting in early 2009, all the way up until fall 2009, when the merger was announced. The PPS also shows strong gains during this time. While patterns don't always play out the same, it is a clue that can be used, especially when dealing with similar management teams.
With that brief background of the GTA/PTX merger, we will now look at REAL & SPZR, two additional shell candidates that Gottlieb, Pearce and other revolving players have under their belt. And just as with the GTA to PTX timeline many of the main stumbling blocks have been taken care of. With both SPZR and REAL the management team has taken a significant equity stake, they have disposed of their assets, have been cleaning up their liabilities and like GTA have recently switched accountants. An advantage for both SPZR & REAL, their O/S counts are significantly less than that of GTA prior to R/M, making an R/S less likely. Based on the clean up they have already done, if they have candidates to merge in I would expect the final steps of the process would not take long.
REAL - Reliability, Inc.
About:
Share Structure:
OTCQB
A/S: 20,000,000
O/S: 9.630,000
Estimated Float: (Based on last reported insider and institutional holdings) 4,936,745
There are two things I like. First with the SS there is an incredibly low O/S. Taken in combination with a >50% equity ownership by Gottlieb and team, this makes an R/S much less likely. Second, the current reporting status often provides more impetus to get a deal done sooner rather than later. As current reporting requires more cash to continue filings, current reporting shells can often R/M in a more timely manner as there is a financial incentive to wrap things up quickly.
Management Acquisition of Shares:
Along with being named directors management came in buying 3,294,035 shares to gain control of greater than 50% of the O/S. It should also be noted that they bought in at .012/shr. With the price standing at .015, I think .012 remains a solid base for more movement up here. Historically, Gottlieb and team first take a sizable equity stake and then take control of the shell.
Change of Control:
Trading Activity:
Since 2009, the shares traded has significantly decreased with shares entering seemingly tighter hands. In the last month, the ask on the L2 has not dropped below .025, despite a few 1000 share buys at the bid.
The Daily Chart shows continued accumulation for the last few months.
The Weekly Chart shows how dramatically the trading decreased after the change of control in spring 2009. It appears shares have found their way into stronger hands.
Net Loss Carryforwards:
Typically companies are able to use ~8% of total NOL for tax writeoffs, although it can vary significantly from case to case.
Stock Options:
That means management no longer has to deal with the possibility of additional options which can often complicate the R/M process for shell owners.
Shareholders of Record:
This number also helps explain why the trading has been quite tight, the number of shareholders of record has been tightening up.
SPZR - Spatializer Audio Laboratories, Inc.
About:
Share Structure:
OTCQB
A/S: 300,000,000
O/S: 6,500,000
Estimated Float: (Based on last reported insider and institutional holdings) 4,489,689
Again, much like REAL, two things to like here, a similar set-up, a low SS and also a current reporting status.
Management Acquisition of Shares:
After taking a strong equity stake, they then proceeded to take control of the company.
Change of Control:
Net-Loss Carryforwards:
Despite it's substantial amount, the $1,000,000 limitation, along with an earlier expiration date (2015) makes it less attractive than REAL's IMO.
Asset Distribution:
Management has shown regard for current shareholders with SPZR as well as with GTA. They could have just R/S'd to bring the SS down to where they wanted it and kept the assets, but they first distributed assets in form of dividend to current shareholders. They then proceeded to do a 10:1 R/S to bring the O/S down under 10,000,000 which allowed them to gain majority equity control. Due to REAL's already low O/S, it seems this was not necessary in that case.
Trading Activity:
This stock seems much more volatile play than REAL, due to what I believe is a larger number of holders.
The Daily Chart shows some accumulation over the last few months.
The volatility can be seen more clearly in the weekly.
I believe this increased volatility can be somewhat explained by the larger number of holders as spelled out in the last 10-K:
ANY CONCERNS?
The primary concern with REAL & SPZR are their short-term cash issues, I will be looking to their upcoming filings for news on whether they are able to resolve these issues. If they are, this will bode well for their future potential. Either way, these are currently trading near rock-bottom pricing at the moment.
If my bet was on which stock would have an R/M first, I would bet on REAL, but either way, this is all conjecture and speculation. In the end, I decided to DD REAL & SPZR because of management's recent success with the last shell they held, in combination with a very attractive SS, their current reporting status and recent accumulation in the last few months. While some shell players may decide they won't take a position right away, I believe, at the very least, they are very attractive shell's to have on a watchlist.
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