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Re: lowman post# 17167

Wednesday, 04/28/2010 7:13:13 PM

Wednesday, April 28, 2010 7:13:13 PM

Post# of 51905
my 3 cents

U do provide some valid points, I need to verify some things tomorrow. Here's a theory. FYI I was a manufacturing engineer for Hyundai Motor Company, I helped launch/troubleshoot their 2010 Sonota 10 and Santa Fe models, with any new design, there are a sh!tload of issues. Pure design actually takes 1-2 yrs. Then we start ramping up for preproduction stages, our design and pilot phases go to dv (design validation)1, dv2, p1 pilot1, p2, Local pilot 1, etc. this takes 6months +, and even when we launch our first prototype they are horrible, and we pull 90hr weeks up to full scale production launch just to fix all the new quality, production, interaction issues. And this is for a top notch company with world wide resources.

Now take an entrepreneurial startup company, with very limited resources, you have to design, troubleshoot, prototype phases, production phases EVERYTHING yourself, this is very very intensive process, only few ppl are capable of, I definitely do not have to IQ to do this. Why do u think even their Vice President Marketing Michael E. Cherry comes from Rockwell International (which later spun off into Rockwell Automation, a leader in PLC, OEM, SAfety in manfucturing hardware and software. I know my friend from Northwestern MBA school went through Rockwell's leadership program and went through their technical marketing sales rotation as an electrical engineer, I assure u it is top notch and very technical, they're a global leader)

Now here's a scenario:
What if this company actually had issues with start up? IE they built their pre launch prototypes. Like stated in the past PR 12/14/2006

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20061214005925&newsLang=en

“Today announced that its Hydra Fuel Cell subsidiary is producing its final production prototype fuel cells. Final assembly and testing is expected to be completed in the next ten days.
“These are the units that we will use for certification and initial commercial production,” said Bob Farr, President and COO of ARSC.”


This goes in lieu of that fact their patent was filing date 5/19/2006
http://assignments.uspto.gov/assignments/q?db=pat&reel=017962&frame=0714



Jun 01, 2007 11:30 ET
“Mike Cherry Joins ARSC as VP-Marketing, HydraStax® Rollout First Priority”
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Mike-Cherry-Joins-ARSC-as-VP-Marketing-HydraStax-Rollout-First-Priority-738140.htm

http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53189&page=8
Conexa purchased over a $1M worth of Hydra in 2008!! Ummm, well that never happened.... damn

Another PO was ordered, doesn’t mean it was completed. I have ordered Pos for my company for full vehicle testing in sunlight/salt conditions. POs can be paid upfront, but they can be billed eg payed after the work is completed This is why purchase order and completion are different.

Dated 6/16/09
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=38256940&symbol=NO^ARSC
"Hydra has been successful in generating a $21,000,000 purchase order
backlog which will take more than two years of production from Hydra?s current plant. The plant we are planning with Highland?s help should be able to produce hundreds of fuel cells
per month.? Farr continued, ?Highland is expected to arrange financing from a variety of sources that may include Industrial Revenue Bonds, equity and grants.? "



From these two PRs I believe
A. The company was having issues with their product and had to make continous improvements and maybe they were producing on a limited basis. But that explains why the demand for the product was going up, but they’re not being fulfilled, no revenue, last PR states 2 YEARS of backlog.
B. We don’t know what exactly happened as far as if their final product passed certification. For all we know, they could’ve ran into a big problem (think Toyota gas pedals on Prius) that they caught thank goodness in the prevamp in their certification phase, (which is ideal and much less costly, in reputation, quality recalls, brand name) and couldn’t actually start producing, do you think a company will release a PR stating OH sh!t we hit a critical roadblock to the whole world:
“Today announced that its Hydra Fuel Cell subsidiary is producing its final production prototype fuel cells. Final assembly and testing is expected to be completed in the next ten days.
“These are the units that we will use for certification and initial commercial production,” said Bob Farr, President and COO of ARSC.” 12/14/06

C. It looks like they were having some issues with launch hence they bring in Jun 01, 2007
D. If they are making continuous refinements, improvements, with traction of their technology, redesign during production stages, that would make sense for this PR



Bob Farr, President and COO of ARSC, stated, “We are pleased that the US Patent Office has recognized the unique quality of our original fuel cell development. Our science has advanced significantly from that time, however, and is far different from the science in these patents.”


My point is that launches do NOT go smoothly. In tech manfucaturing industry, it is common for companies to PO something and not receive it, scream at each other until they ink out a deal (usually involves interest on credit, etc) And if there is a problem, I can tell u that it is an In house issue and will not be leaked to public. For example, I worked on seats, when have you heard of a seat burning up and melting seat trim because the heater pad malfunctioned due to static electricity before assembly, YOU DON’T. But this could also be a case where they developed the technology enough for a tremendous commercial success hence you see their benchmark improvement on their website (400% cost reduction)


What you can’t dispute is this:

1. SEC filings insider buy in, the CEO and COO have both bought 100mil shares LAST WEEK
2. They are uplisting on OTC and announcing of audits 2008-2009 by PS Stephenson & Co., , AUDITED FINANCIALS, this is a huge deal for a company, and they only do this when gearing up for something. But it’s to make company transparent, especially in interest of shareholders. (or in this case Funds as well) I do believe I see 10-Ks posted on pinksheets ( I haven’t read them I’m horrible with financials)
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=41222775&symbol=NO^ARSC
3. Weston Capital Group based in NYC is verifable, (CHECK!)
4. Buskop Law Group is verifable (CHECK!) plus they’re award winning
#232
http://www.seedip.com/images/uploads/2010_Top_Patent_Firms.pdf
They got awarded patent of the year 2008 from this firm, and this PR was also released 9/09
5. New patents being issued or near completion. (I need to verify this though)

A PR of company is half the story. I don’t fully go by them but look at the other evidence. I may not be right, but I tell u this company is putting some big names out there for a fake launch. I don’t recall a scam company being so detailed, deliberate, and well managed. I'm telling you this is a big deal :)