Tornado Alley (PROG)

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This is a worrisome trend, and it hits a little too close to home.

Far-right party poised to make gains in Hungary

PABLO GORONDI, Associated Press Writer Pablo Gorondi, Associated Press Writer – 52 mins ago
BUDAPEST, Hungary – A far-right party backed by black-clad paramilitary extremists is poised to make dramatic gains Sunday in Hungary's national elections, mirroring recent advances by anti-immigrant parties across Europe.

Fidesz, the mainstream center-right party led by former Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is widely pegged to gain a commanding lead in the first round of the vote Sunday — as much as 60 percent, according to recent polls.

That leaves the real contest for second place. With Hungary among European nations hardest hit by the world recession, the far-right Jobbik party has capitalized on rising nationalism and a resurgence of anti-Semitism and anti-Gypsy sentiment linked to the downturn. Analysts give the party a good chance to get the most votes after Fidesz, with the Gallup poll putting them at 17 percent.

That, in turn, would spell catastrophe for the governing Socialists, who are overwhelmingly blamed for the economic hardships. Polls project that they could get less than 20 percent of the vote — a stunning reversal from the 43 percent support they received in 2006.

While Fidesz and the Socialists have been around since the first democratic elections in 1990, Jobbik is a relative newcomer, bursting onto the scene during last year's elections for the European Parliament, winning nearly 15 percent of the votes — nearly three times as much as any other far-right party in Hungary since the end of communism.

To varying degrees, Jews and Gypsies have traditionally served as scapegoats in Eastern Europe for resident majorities during hard times. Jobbik has been able to inflate the traditional, relatively small base of extreme nationalist and anti-Semitic supporters with voters from Hungary's struggling country villages where the lack of jobs and poverty-related thievery has exacerbated tensions with Gypsies, or Roma, as they are also called.

Jobbik's rise also has been aided by the popularity of the Magyar Garda, or Hungarian Guard, an extremist group whose uniforms are reminiscent of those worn in the 1940s by the Arrow Cross, Hungary's infamous wartime Nazi party.

The Garda was co-founded by Jobbik leader Gabor Vona, although he is no longer an active member. It was disbanded last year by the courts for breaking laws governing the operation of groups and associations, but it continues to exist under a new name.

"I will keep my promise to go into parliament on the first day in a Garda vest," Vona said at Jobbik's campaign closer in Budapest.

The Garda's most confrontational actions have been a series of marches through small countryside towns and villages meant to intimidate their large Gypsy populations and stop what Jobbik calls "Gypsy crimes" — mostly petty thefts too numerous and considered too minor for police to deal with.

An unprecedented series of Roma killings in 2008 and 2009 claimed six lives in several villages, reflecting the depth of hatred against the minority.

"A very different type of voter is in the northeast part of the country," said analyst Csaba Toth of the Republikon Institute. "Many lost their jobs and are voting for Jobbik only because of the anti-Roma sentiment. They feel the most threatened by the minorities, live near them ... and believe it is their money that gives them their social subsidies."

Speakers at party rallies also often cater to anti-Semitic feelings among their supporters.

A law criminalizing Holocaust denial was passed by parliament in February on behalf of "our nation's colonizer, Israel," according to Lorant Hegedus Jr., a Calvinist minister who campaigns for Jobbik.

A recent copy of the Jobbik weekly shows a statue of St. Gellert — a national icon — holding a menorah, a ceremonial Jewish candelabra, instead of the cross. The subtitle reads: "Is this what you want?"

Still, even if the party does well in elections, it could struggle to repeat its success, as its countryside support — those deeply affected by the economic crisis and by the conflicts with Roma — dries up with the improving economy.

"Those Jobbik supporters want good governance and if Fidesz does a good job," they will drift back to other parties, said David Hejj, a research fellow of the Szazadveg Foundation in Budapest.

Pollsters say Fidesz may get a two-thirds majority in the 386-seat legislature, which would allow it to modify the Constitution and other laws needed to implement oft-postponed reforms in local governments and the electoral system.

The new government's biggest challenge, however, will be to lead Hungary's recovery from a deep recession, which saw the economy shrink by 6.3 percent in 2009 and the unemployment rate rise to a historic high of 11.4 percent last month.

The country received a standby loan of euro20 billion ($27.5 billion) from the International Monetary Fund and other institutions in late 2008, allowing it to defend its currency and avert a financial meltdown, but has been forced to implement a series of cutbacks and austerity measures to keep the budget deficit under control.

Hungary has been steered by Gordon Bajnai's "crisis management government" since the resignation last March of Ferenc Gyurcsany. He led the Socialists to victory in 2006 but quickly lost credibility as Budapest was engulfed by violent street protests after it was revealed that he had lied about the economy to win the elections.

Fidesz, helped by the Socialists' unpopularity and Jobbik's extremist agenda, has been declared the sure electoral winner for months, allowing it to campaign without divulging too many details of its agenda.

"The problem with Fidesz's program is its lack of overall clarity and direction," said political analyst Grace Annan from London's IHS Global Insight. "It is so far ahead in the opinion polls that it does not need to give away its socio-economic policy secrets."

Orban said some tax cuts would be implemented from July 1 and others next year, but did not offer specifics. Fidesz has also pledged to create 1 million jobs over the next decade and halve the number of parliamentary lawmakers and municipal councilors.

Still, the party seems to be aware that veering off the present course of restrained spending could again shake the trust of international investors and test relations with creditors.

"This is one of the most difficult questions that we will face in the upcoming months and years," said Fidesz spokesman Peter Szijjarto. "We are asking for advice from the EU ... about how to clean up the (economic) picture and still not lose the confidence" of the markets.

Runoffs will be held April 25 in districts where no candidate has obtained at least half of the ballots.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100410/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_hungary_elections