CNAM: here is how I would tackle eps prediction for 2010 based on today's news:
For the production ramp up to reach 100% capacity (1M Ton) in 4Q10 as of 2010, I am assuming a step function starting at 10% in March (1Q) and increasing 30% in each of the following quarter.
Production in KT= Thousand Metric Ton, Full capacity means 1MT per year or 250KT per quarter:
1Q= 10% capacity= 25 KT (roughly equal to 1st month of the new contract=23KT)
2Q= 40% capacity= 100 KT
3Q= 70% capacity= 175 KT
4Q= 100%capacity= 250 KT
Total 2010 production= 550 KT
Excess production after satisfying new contract= 550-230= 320 KT
assuming they can sell half of that for the year to other clients at same price of $440/Ton, results in 320x440/2=$70M
2010 rev= new contract + sale of excess prod + existing reselling business(assumed =82M in 2009)
2010 rev= 100M + 70M + 82M = 252M
assume 5% net margin
2010 net inc= 12.6M
assume all warrants and options redeemed in 2010 w/o cash to be ultra conservative, O/S= 12.4M shares
low end 2010 eps= $1.
I am sure this needs to be refined as we get more info on sales, margin...
