Interesting indeed! Add some thinking to the below into the mix, with an over sold condition in the GOLD relm, the next three months regardless will be quite telling. As for FFGO their timing has probably been factored in:)
Priz
"USDOLLAR BOUNCE
Last autumn 2008, one year ago, the USDollar embarked on what my analysis called a Dollar Death Dance. The bounce from the November depths last month at 74.5 to the hardly rarified air near 79 has been sudden. The rise in rebound has been built upon several factors. The Dubai debt mess has exposed European and London banks for further losses, leading to an exit from both the Euro and British Pound currencies. The US banks are more adept at hiding their losses, extended their toxic loans, pretending they will find eventual value. The Dubai shock has made vividly clear the heightened risk of a European Union fracture, a threat to the Euro currency, and a need for Germany to cut off some Southern Europe debtors from the young union. The Dubai debt default short-circuited the strong gold season. Seasonality issues have been widely destroyed in recent years in numerous asset classes. The late winter and spring for gold should be strong again, as the USDollar will expose its toxic fundamentals. The only thing making the US$-based instruments look good is the unfavorable comparison to broken European national debt structures, which do not have the benefit of the Printing Pre$$ Privilege or the support systems from Wall Street.
The Competing Currency Wars have heated up again from comparisons rather than open hostility to protect exports. Money departs the Euro harbors and enters the USDollar arenas, still filled with risk and insolvency. This sudden US$ rebound has left the G-20 Meeting declarations a recent bad memory. The emerging nations had shown steady disrespect for the so-called developed nations, the deep debtors who long ago lost their industrial base. They transformed industry to debt, an accomplishment by modern central banking!! There is nothing like some debt liquidation to show how the USDollar still has remnants of a safe haven. Its security has only remnants. Let's not even touch the endless wars and their outsized costs.
Just what is the force to sustain the USDollar rebound? More European member nation debt woes. More credit derivative liquidation and payouts. The US$ rebound runs low on valid fuel. This is the Dollar Death Dance, part II. The long-term trend will remain down. The immediate activity could feature more of the same. The short covering of the Dollar Carry Trade has been clear. It will have to muster enough funds, courage, and wisdom to put that carry trade into second gear. It is inevitable. It is justified. It will be profitable. It certainly will be dangerous, since the USDollar is still the global reserve currency. That status is threatened though. Clearly, the USDollar rebound, a move of a mere 6% in the last few weeks, is the only factor pushing down the gold price. One can see that the gold price decline has run its course. The overbought condition has worked itself off. The risk of a move to 1060-1080 is apparent. However, the moving averages are rising. The stochastix are ready to cross over in a positive way. Last but not least, the fundamentals for the USGovt finances and the USDollar in particular could not be more acutely horrible, miserable, outrageously negative, and represent a palpable threat of a sovereign debt default down the road. At least we will see a monetary crisis centered upon the USDollar." ~ Jim Willie
