I'll continue to watch it. I do think they have the right approach to the science... and it obviously will be useful to have them succeed in refining their understanding and applying the science to solve the problem...
If and when they solve the problem, the solution will be hugely valuable...
What we see now appears it can be only one of two things...
It is either large and significant uncertainty on the part of those who are closest to the issues, with Bay seeming to be waffling on the edge of indecision about what to do with the project, so posturing in a way that has them sitting on VIAP pretty hard. Basically, in that scenario, Bay has recalled it for some serious reworking of the effort from the concept level... and they've repo'd it to make keeping it alive make sense to them.
Otherwise, there is some more significant success occurring in the science side than we are being let in on, and Bay is doing what they are in posturing it as they are only in order to capture far more of the value that exists then would appear justified if the level of uncertainty being postured weren't looking to us like it does.
My opinion is that I don't know which of those is closer to the ground truth... and it doesn't matter from an investment perspective to the degree that the impact is the same.
Given what I have seen here more recently, I'm leaning more toward the first of the two options... I think it likely Bay's analysis is more clearly focused on "$ required vs. the timelines" with greater clarity than we CAN have. Given the track record, I'm thinking they are probably less wrong on the programmatic elements as VCs then they are on top of the value and utility of the work done on the science side.
I do think the science effort has been under-managed... perhaps a bit more going through the motions than applying intellect to the problems as they go...
What I don't get, yet, is why, IF it is back to the level of being a basic science project that will need to start over from scratch on the FDA phase schedule... they haven't done more than they have to position it in a way that would enable new $ to come in to support it AS that. Twisting in the wind as it is... must suggest there is still SOMETHING here making not worth pulling the plug and starting over ?
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