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Re: mrnatural post# 146

Thursday, 05/07/2009 10:08:53 PM

Thursday, May 07, 2009 10:08:53 PM

Post# of 185
MrNatural, now we are talking. Here's why I started this board. I absolutely believe we can go directly to trading and investing with knowledge--meaning with an accuracy rate above 70 percent. Maybe even above 85 percent.

I don't mean to sound so silly when I talk about moving averages. Of course everyone knows *that*.

Over the years I've looked at most everything. What I'm saying, what I'm seeing is that are only a few facts, a few absolutely reliable things we can know about price. What we can know is tied to moving averages. Now let's get in there with razors and scalpels and see exactly what the moving averages can tell us. Let's clean up every last ounce of noise that can be cleaned up and find the signal.

There's going to be noise. We know that. Noise is fine. Let there be noise. Let's find the signal we know is the best possible signal. Half-way signals are not good enough. Fuzzy signals are not good enough. Think signal until you see the signal in your dreams. Think signal until you see only that signal in a chart. So if you're not seeing the signal, you have no desire to trade any more than you have a desire to jump off a cliff.

OK, Ted, how? Strip everything away. Put in one pile those things you know absolutely. Focus on nothing else. Trade only that. See only that. Signal in the noise. Trade the signal.

This is why I started out with the stuff about being a champion. It's wasn't rah-rah stuff. Absolutely for real. I'm writing to myself! To be an Olympic gymnast, you have to know absolutely what you're doing to perform some of those tricks. It takes strength and resolve and experience and knowledge. And when it comes to the performance, focus. Keen focus.

So what I'm asking you to do--and I mean anyone who comes to this board--is help me strip price naked. No noise. Just the signal. Then let's focus on that signal, and trade it. It only.

I made a mistake this week--crossing things up--dipping into my iffy pile of data. The problem there is I'm too smart, and I can out-maneuver the market often--but it isn't worth it. It involves thinking way too much and working way too hard and taking on too much risk.

What I absolutely know is we can accomplish what I'm setting out. Unconditionally believe that. Even more important, the end result is beyond anything we can calculate.

Will you join me in proving or disproving this proposition? This is my invitation. To do this, we have to be absolutely honest. We have say, here's where I get stuck. Here's where I don't execute. What can I do? How can I clean this signal until at the most of execution, I *know* what to do? How can I continue to hold a position when I want to sell it for no good reason?

I'm absolutely serious, and even while I'm serious, I know it could be more fun than we ever dreamed.

Thanks for being there, man.

Ted

PS
Let's prove price is knowable, manageable, a real business, not just a sophisticated gambling game. I love games. What I'm bringing to this business is game strategy. But now I intend on taking that game strategy all the way. I want to apply game theory until there is no game left but only an enterprise to be managed. I need your assistance. I need the dialog. Two minds are better than one.

Strip price to the barest data that tells us BUY, HOLD, or SELL.

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