MMRF - here's my current evaluation .......
About a month prior to the HIMSS conference, I predicted (anyone can find the post) the stock would trade at .30 going into the conference. I missed the call by .02, as the PPS was .28 going into the conference.
When I saw that the stock just couldn't break .29, I sold most of my stock at .285 and when the big one-day dip arrived, I bought trading shares at .20 and .21 and then sold them all at .25
Why ?
In trading and investing, I always try to anticipate what others are thinking unless there's a stock that's just plain ridiculously valued and I could care less what anyone else thinks, as I know it's a steal at the price I paid, such as what I paid for CHME, GHII, LPIH, SUTR, PIR, etc.
I don't think there's any doubt that MMRF is going to be big in time, but I could see alot of the MMRF board posters weren't going to allow for time and would lose patience with a daytrader mentality. In thinking that, I chose to take the profits I did at the price I did, thinking the PPS would most likely drift downward. If it didn't, kudos to those that held.
Even after I sold, I still received several PM's about what I thought about the company and I've had nothing but good things to say about MMRF. Now that the stock is trading where it is, I felt more comfortable about talking about the stock and its valuation.
Evaluation:
If you currently own MMRF, I wouldn't sell it, as I think there will be big gains up ahead. At .21, the market cap is $29.6 million and that's the reason the stock was not going to hold .30 in recent runs. I don't listen whatsoever to what chartists have to say with regards to MMRF, as it's all about valuation to me. Most of us believe that MMRF will be a big winner, but we all have to realize that it's not going to be a big winner tomorrow, as in the day after today.
At .30, I knew in my gut that it would take powerful revenue news from the company in order to push the stock above .30 permanently and that just wasn't going to happen in the timeframe necessary to sustain the PPS. Another reason I bailed at .285 was due to the fact that I knew the company's first stand-alone 10-Q would be forthcoming and it ain't going to be pretty revenue wise. That said, I think it's obvious the company is doing deals and the revenues will increase, but the stock needs to see signed deals with revenue estimates.
My honest opinion about the webinar ?
I really liked it, but heck, it was geared towards potential customers and not shareholders. At this point, there's no doubt in my mind that Lorsch wants to focus on building his company and he doesn't want to talk about the stock. Almost every question in the webinar that concerned the stock was brushed aside, including the questions I asked. I don't necessarily have a problem with that, but I was rather disappointed with regards to what I anticipated versus what was actually discussed.
Bottom Line:
I think MMRF is going to be big some day, but I don't like reading posts on the MMRF board where blame on the PPS is placed on someone for selling his or her shares. That's totally uncalled for, as each one of us makes our own decisions as to where to sell and where to buy. Even after I sold most of my stock and no one knowing about it, I continued to post positively about the company, as I believe it's a homerun on down the line. If you're looking for a good risk/reward stock in terms of a long-term investment, MMRF is a great stock IMO and a mattress-stuffer. If you're looking for a quick buck in the short term, wait till the 10-Q comes out and see how the stock reacts. For now, fair value probably rests somewhere between .16 and .24 until the company shows us revenue growth that indicates what we all believe will happen.
As far as the MMRF board ? I really liked it up until the HIMSS conference, but I've noticed a few usual suspects arriving on the scene and the tone of the board has changed. Rainmaker is the best and he's the only reason whatsoever I even read that board.
IMO, the stock will trade at $1.00 when the net income hits $3 million, meaning the P/E will be about 50 and I'm also using the entire A/S count of 150 million in my calculation. I think the stock will start its permanent push northward in June or July.
